Why Make-up Gross sales Are Declining Whereas Pores and skin Care and Perfume Are Up

Regardless of historic precedent that the other needs to be the case, make-up gross sales are starting to say no.

Knowledge from NIQ exhibits that complete make-up gross sales dropped 1 p.c from January by way of October 2024, with the downturn accelerating notably over the last 12 weeks of that interval. Although this will likely not seem to be a steep drop-off, it’s a far cry from the class’s efficiency only a 12 months prior — and it makes cosmetics the one magnificence class to see an general decline in gross sales.

“Make-up has been sluggish this 12 months,” mentioned Anna Mayo, NIQ’s vice chairman of magnificence, including that “it’s face and eye cosmetics that are dragging it down; lip cosmetics are seeing development pushed by lip glosses, stains, liners and balms.”

Certainly, lip cosmetics are make-up’s brilliant spot in each the status and mass channels, the place Circana stories make-up gross sales grew 5 p.c by way of the third quarter of 2024 (status) however decreased 3 p.c within the mass sector. Whereas make-up continues to be seeing development within the status market, the expansion has been dwindling at an accelerated price.

Take into account that for many of 2023 make-up was status magnificence’s fastest-growing class, posting regular double-digit positive aspects. Then the vacations got here round and never solely did skincare overtake make-up for the highest spot — hair care and perfume, too, had been all of the sudden rising sooner for the primary time that 12 months. (Throughout the fourth quarter of 2023, skincare grew 15 p.c in status; perfume grew 13 p.c; hair grew 12 p.c, and make-up netted out at 11 p.c).

What was a plot twist then has remained a sample immediately: Circana information exhibits perfume is at present status magnificence’s fastest-growing class, and hair care is quantity two. Whereas skincare solely grew 3 p.c in status by way of the third quarter of 2024 (lower than make-up’s 5 p.c), the distinction is that skincare continues to be rising in mass.

“I do suppose it comes right down to the place the innovation is coming from,” mentioned Mayo, including that the “Lipstick Index” — a time period coined by Leonard Lauder to explain the phenomenon through which magnificence gross sales enhance throughout instances of financial hardship — nonetheless checks out. It’s simply that make-up gross sales won’t essentially proceed main that cost.

“Individuals are nonetheless prioritizing magnificence and making room for it, however there are selections that are maybe shifting to different classes. A variety of innovation focus appears very a lot on pores and skin and physique care proper now — and naturally, perfume, which is seeing a ton of curiosity,” she continued.

Olivia Stelmaszczyk, a magnificence and style analysis analyst at Euromonitor, pointed to shoppers’ rising wellness focus as another excuse for the Lipstick Index’s broadening horizons. “As we speak’s client has extra choices for mood-boosting magnificence purchases; even perfume has remodeled right into a extra self-care-oriented class, so a few of that Lipstick Index spend is evolving past make-up.”

There’s additionally the matter of on-line procuring development, with NIQ monitoring a 4 p.c on-line make-up gross sales enhance within the class and a 1 p.c in-store make-up gross sales decline final 12 months. Euromonitor information, in the meantime, exhibits make-up customers purchase on-line at a better frequency than every other magnificence class. (Eighteen p.c of make-up customers report shopping for on-line versus 17 p.c for skincare and 14 p.c for hair care.)

“Impulse buying simply isn’t the identical on-line as having the ability to merely seize one thing off of a retailer show,” mentioned Mayo, pointing, too, to the drug channel’s latest apply of placing merchandise underneath lock and key as one other barrier to impulse procuring. “That’s impacting classes as properly.”

Plus there are indications that buyers could also be paring down their make-up routines in sure regards, with NIQ seeing a slowdown in gross sales of contour, eye shadows and eyeliners.

“Customers are prioritizing pores and skin well being and adopting extra minimalist magnificence routines,” mentioned Wealthy Gersten, cofounder of funding agency True Magnificence Ventures, including that “with an oversaturated market and intense competitors, many make-up manufacturers wrestle to distinguish themselves and seize significant market share.”

In accordance with CreatorIQ, make-up isn’t exhibiting indicators of slowdown by way of influencer content material and social buzz, nevertheless.

“If make-up manufacturers are bracing for a downturn, they might in reality be contemplating ramping up their creator advertising and marketing efforts to assist enhance gross sales, so we shouldn’t essentially count on to see the correlation between a downtown in gross sales and a downturn in creator efforts,” mentioned Alex Rawitz, director of analysis and insights, CreatorIQ.