Ottawa, Canada – For months, Pierre Poilievre had been driving excessive.
He had efficiently tapped into public nervousness over an affordability disaster in Canada, his assaults towards Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had discovered a receptive viewers, and his Conservative Occasion loved an enormous lead within the polls.
However then Trudeau introduced he was stepping down. The governing Liberal Occasion named a brand new chief. And Canadian politics shifted course, confronted with threats of tariffs and annexation from United States President Donald Trump.
And similar to that, Poilievre and the Tories noticed their lead evaporate.
“The marketing campaign that Poilievre thought he was going to run [has disappeared] out from below him,” stated Lisa Younger, a political science professor on the College of Calgary.
With Canadians heading into April 28 elections, specialists stated Poilievre now faces a good race when as soon as he was the frontrunner.
Surveys counsel Canadians are questioning whether or not the Conservative Occasion chief has what it takes to confront the US president.
In mid-January, the Conservatives had a lead of as many as 26 proportion factors, however polling now reveals the Liberals might safe a majority authorities within the upcoming elections.
But Poilievre’s message continues to resonate in elements of the nation.
He enjoys a powerful base of supporters, and the longtime Parliament member has been hailed by Conservative insiders as a savvy politician who shouldn’t be counted out.
“Pierre is the actual deal,” stated Nathan Bergstrand, a enterprise supervisor at United Affiliation Native 67, a union representing plumbers, steamfitters and welders.
“He’s been one of many loudest and strongest voices previously a number of years preventing out-of-control deficit spending and tax will increase,” Bergstrand informed a Poilievre rally in Hamilton, Ontario, in March. “Keep in mind that spending is simple. Being accountable isn’t. He’s able to put the arduous work in that’s essential.”
So simply who’s Pierre Poilievre, what does he stand for, and may he change into Canada’s subsequent prime minister?
‘Put our personal individuals first’
The Hamilton rally, which came about simply days into the election marketing campaign, in some ways demonstrated the political persona Poilievre has cultivated in recent times.
1000’s of individuals lined as much as hear the Conservative chief communicate within the working-class metropolis west of Toronto, which has sometimes been a bastion of help for the left-leaning New Democrats.
“We’re going to arise for who we’re and what we consider, and we’re going to place our personal individuals first,” Poilievre informed the group of supporters who chanted, “We wish Pierre!” earlier than he took the stage.
Describing Canada as a “nation certain collectively by the Canadian promise that anybody from wherever can obtain something”, he promised to revive a way of nationwide pleasure after a “misplaced decade” of Liberal governance.
“In case you are that younger couple determined to purchase a house and begin a household earlier than the organic clock runs out in your mid-30s, I’m right here to say that change is on the way in which,” Poilievre stated to applause.
“In case you are an aged couple selecting between consuming and heating and questioning what occurred to the gorgeous nation that you simply knew and nonetheless love, I’m right here to say that each hope and alter are on the way in which.”
That message is one which Poilievre has tied to his personal origin story, rising up within the metropolis of Calgary within the western province of Alberta.
Thrilled to obtain the endorsement of Nathan Bergstrand, UA Native 67’s Enterprise Supervisor, an incredible champion for his staff.
His members are the extraordinary Canadians who construct our nation.
Collectively we are going to be certain that they, and all the employees throughout this nation, have a Prime… pic.twitter.com/41YaMICWhC
— Pierre Poilievre (@PierrePoilievre) March 26, 2025
‘Scrappy’ seasoned politician
Born to a teenage mom and adopted by two schoolteachers, Poilievre has publicly referred to his household as “a sophisticated and mixed-up bunch”, utilizing his upbringing as a metaphor for Canada itself.
He would later credit score his adopted mother and father with instilling in him an entrepreneurial spirit. “They taught me that it didn’t matter the place I got here from however the place I used to be going,” Poilievre stated. “It didn’t matter who I knew however what I might do.”
He ultimately attended the College of Calgary, the place he shortly acquired concerned in conservative politics.
At age 20, he gained an essay contest for writing about how, if ever elected prime minister, he would put “freedom” on the coronary heart of his authorities.
“I might relinquish to residents as a lot of my social, political, and financial management as attainable, leaving individuals to domesticate their very own private prosperity and to control their very own affairs as straight as attainable,” he wrote.
After college, Poilievre labored for Stockwell Day, an Alberta politician who led the Canadian Alliance, a celebration that within the early 2000s merged with the Progressive Conservatives to type the Conservative Occasion of Canada.
Poilievre was 25 when he gained his first federal race in 2004 in an electoral district, identified in Canada as a driving, within the capital, Ottawa. He has represented the world ever since, together with by way of the practically 10-year tenure of Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
He held a number of roles below Harper, together with because the prime minister’s parliamentary secretary and later as minister of state for democratic reform.
However Poilievre grew to become referred to as an “assault canine” who used partisan rhetoric in defence of Harper and the Conservative authorities’s insurance policies.
In 2013, the left-leaning New Democratic Occasion stated Poilievre’s rise demonstrated that, “to change into a minister for Stephen Harper, you could depart the reality behind and embrace mean-spirited assaults”.
Regardless of the criticism, Poilievre maintained his aggressive political type when the Trudeau-led Liberals gained the 2015 elections and kicked the Conservatives out of presidency.
The Tories have been in opposition since then — a task that specialists stated Poilievre, who has helmed the Conservative Occasion since 2022, excels in.
“He has spent mainly his grownup life being a partisan,” Younger stated. “He’s described by people who find themselves near him as a really gifted politician, and definitely, he’s described precisely as scrappy.”
Concentrating on Trudeau
That scrappiness is one thing Poilievre has used to his benefit in recent times as Canadians grew more and more anxious about affordability points.
Poilievre harnessed widespread nervousness and anger over hovering housing and grocery prices to lambast Trudeau, whom he blamed for all the ills befalling the nation. He even known as Trudeau a “wacko prime minister” on the ground of the Canadian Parliament.
Andrew Tumilty, director of points administration and disaster communications on the Enterprise Canada communications agency, stated Poilievre has employed “a really populist method” to politics that’s “meant to stoke emotion reasonably than considering”.
“One in every of his central themes was that Canada is damaged,” Tumilty informed Al Jazeera. “That additionally relied closely on his characterisation of former Prime Minister Trudeau as being the rationale that Canada is damaged.”
Poilievre additionally has taken an antagonistic method to mainstream media, accusing journalists of bias and promising to defund the general public broadcaster CBC.
He has denounced progressive insurance policies as “wokeness” run amok, promised to be robust on crime and stated he plans to shortly greenlight main useful resource initiatives, elevating issues over his dedication to preventing local weather change and respecting Indigenous rights.
In the meantime, Poilievre has been capable of painting himself as a defender of a working-class struggling to make ends meet.
He zeroed in on an unpopular authorities carbon-pricing programme, for instance, to color Trudeau as out of contact with most Canadians and their wants. “Axe the Tax” – his slogan about scrapping carbon pricing – was a profitable, early rallying cry.
On the identical time, Poilievre routinely makes use of his speeches and social media movies to pine for a time when Canadians had good-paying jobs and will afford properties, and he has promised to revive that period.
His message has performed nicely to the Conservative Occasion’s base, which is basically centred in western Canada. But it surely has likewise allowed Poilievre to enchantment to different elements of the nation which have grown annoyed with the established order.
Greg Walker, an Ottawa resident who lives in Poilievre’s driving, is amongst those that are fed up with the governing Liberal Occasion.
“I’m going to vote Conservative, for Poilievre,” Walker informed Al Jazeera in late March outdoors a grocery retailer within the small city of Stittsville.
“He sounds succesful as the pinnacle of the opposition occasion. Let’s see how he does. How a lot worse can he do than [Trudeau] doubling the nationwide debt in 9 years?”
Walker, like a number of different voters Al Jazeera spoke to in Stittsville, acknowledged that a part of the rationale he’s backing Poilievre is out of exhaustion with the Liberals below Trudeau.
“It’s not as if I at all times vote for a man I like the most effective. It’s extra that I vote towards the man who’s an fool,” Walker stated.
Convoy help
However many have raised alarm over Poilievre’s aggressive type and insurance policies and warned that his guarantees to defend working-class Canadians will go unfulfilled.
“Since his first election, this profession politician has persistently sided with the rich on the expense of working individuals,” the Canadian Union of Public Workers, the biggest union in Canada with about 750,000 members, stated in October.
“His lengthy observe document as an MP proves that Poilievre is operating for his mates – billionaires, banks, and massive polluters – not staff, not you.”
Poilievre’s resolution to embrace the “Freedom Convoy” has additionally drawn scrutiny. Led by far-right activists, the convoy blockaded the streets of Ottawa in 2022 to protest towards COVID-19 vaccine mandates and different authorities insurance policies.
Trudeau’s resolution to invoke the seldom-used Emergencies Act to disperse the protest drew controversy. That included the freezing of some contributors’ financial institution accounts, which rights teams stated was an infringement on civil liberties.
“Pierre managed to get a foot in there with subtlety, with engagement, with that ‘each individual’ type of mentality that he has,” defined Carmen Celestini, a professor on the College of Waterloo who research far-right actions and conspiracy theories.
“That was a really sensible, strategic transfer for him,” Celestini stated of Poilievre’s involvement within the convoy.
The Conservatives have been at a important crossroads on the time, having misplaced three consecutive elections to the Liberals. Sometimes, Tory leaders had sought to enchantment to Canadian voters with a extra centrist platform than what they ran for the management on.
However Poilievre, who gained the Conservative management race simply months after he spoke out in defence of convoy contributors, didn’t do this. Consultants famous on the time that his victory signalled that the occasion was embracing a populist model of conservatism.
His affiliation with the convoy additionally allowed the Conservatives to stop the far-right Folks’s Occasion of Canada from siphoning off a few of their help.
Poilievre has denied accusations that his backing of the convoy motion meant he supported far-right fringe components.
Celestini, nevertheless, stated he generally makes use of “set off phrases” that enchantment to far-right conspiracy theorists. She pointed to Poilievre’s repeated assaults on the World Financial Discussion board (WEF) as one such instance.
“That’s interesting to the viewers that thinks we’re within the ‘nice reset’,” Celestini defined, referring to the conspiracy concept that the WEF is attempting to impose an authoritarian world authorities by way of its COVID-19 restoration plan.
Poilievre additionally not too long ago gave an interview to fashionable right-wing commentator Jordan Peterson. In it, Poilievre denounced “an obsession with race that woke-ism has reinserted” and “invented in some ways”. He promised to revive “the values of gratitude” for Canadian historical past.
“He makes use of these phrases that talk to conspiracists, that talk to the engagement of males who really feel disenfranchised or have constructed victimhood,” Celestini stated.
The Trump issue
However Poilievre’s transfer away from the political centre might pose a problem in Canada’s quickly evolving political sphere.
In early January, Trudeau introduced he could be stepping down as prime minister, stripping Poilievre of the adversary he had spent years sparring with.
Trump’s threats of imposing steep tariffs on Canada and making the nation into the US’s “51st state” have additionally led to an increase in Canadian nationalism and calls to unite in defence of the nation’s sovereignty.
“Listening to the message [from Poilievre] of Canada being damaged … isn’t going to play as nicely when there’s a surge of nationwide unity and nationwide pleasure,” Tumilty stated.
Younger additionally defined that whereas Poilievre’s insurance policies are totally different from Trump’s, he has adopted a “Trump type” that isn’t sitting nicely with many Canadians at this second of heightened tensions with the US.
“He likes giving nicknames to his opponents the way in which Trump has given nicknames to his opponents. He has type of a snarky, dismissive means of coping with the mainstream media that’s type of harking back to Trump,” she stated.
“He’s in an election the place a key phase of the citizens – the people who find themselves most likely going to resolve this election – are people who find themselves searching for somebody to guide the nation by way of a really troublesome financial and political second. They maybe need sophistication, not slogans.”
A March 20 ballot from the analysis agency Ipsos discovered that 41 p.c of respondents favoured Liberal chief Mark Carney to deal with Trump, in contrast with 31 p.c for Poilievre.
The identical ballot discovered that 43 p.c of respondents believed Poilievre would “roll over and settle for” Trump’s calls for, practically double the proportion of people that stated the identical of Carney.
The Conservative Occasion didn’t instantly reply to Al Jazeera’s request for remark.
Hal Howlett, an Ottawa-area resident who voted in Poilievre’s driving earlier than the traces have been redrawn, stated his principal concern heading into the upcoming elections is having a pacesetter who can stand as much as Trump.
“And I believe Carney is that man,” he stated.
Howlett added that he by no means preferred the way in which Poilievre would trash his Liberal opponents whereas canvassing for previous elections.
“I simply by no means preferred him, and I couldn’t perceive how he stored getting elected. He was boastful even when he wasn’t the highest man,” Howlett stated.
“I don’t assume a high politician needs to be a jerk, similar to Donald Trump is.”
Vital marketing campaign
Polls are exhibiting the Liberals have prolonged their lead within the election race, with the CBC Information Ballot Tracker saying the occasion is shifting “deeper into majority territory”. As of April 9, Poilievre and the Conservatives are 7 proportion factors behind.
The query stays, although, how Poilievre would possibly deal with rising tensions with the US if he turns into the following prime minister.
A Breitbart interview with Conservative Alberta Premier Danielle Smith not too long ago resurfaced, reigniting scrutiny over the problem.
Smith informed the far-right US information outlet that she had appealed to the Trump administration to delay its tariffs till after the Canadian elections as a result of they have been serving to the Liberals. She additionally stated Poilievre was “in sync” with the US administration.
However, Poilievre has sought to current himself as the appropriate option to tackle Trump.
Standing at a podium emblazoned with the slogan “Canada First – for a Change”, Poilievre launched his marketing campaign on March 23 by attacking the Liberals as having “made our economic system and our nation weaker and extra divided, similar to Trump wished”.
“Electing Liberals to a fourth time period will weaken our nation nonetheless,” he added.
Based on Younger, the monthlong marketing campaign season goes to be pivotal.
She famous that each Poilievre and Carney are of their first election race as leaders of their respective events and the way they’ll deal with the stress stays an open query.
“Voters have shifted their vote intention during the last a number of weeks, however that’s versatile. It could possibly nonetheless shift again,” she informed Al Jazeera.
“We don’t know what plot twists are coming throughout the marketing campaign from Donald Trump. I actually assume it’s anybody’s guess how that is going to play out.”