Cardinals from around the globe will meet this week to formally start deciding on the subsequent pope in a secret poll after the late Pope Francis‘s funeral on April 26. The vote itself will happen behind the sealed doorways of the Sistine Chapel someday after Might 7.
Choosing the subsequent chief of the Catholic Church is a momentous and extremely anticipated job. The church counts some 1.4 billion baptised Roman Catholics around the globe as members.
Elections within the Vatican aren’t resistant to lobbying and campaigning. First, the cardinals should maintain a sequence of congregazioni – particular conferences at which they’ll talk about what kind of chief they’re on the lookout for. Whereas solely 135 cardinals will be capable of vote, as they’re under the age of 80, as per the voting guidelines, all cardinals can attend these conferences no matter age.
Roberto Regoli, a professor of Catholic Church historical past at Rome’s Pontifical Gregorian College, stated that not like in a standard election, not one of the high contenders within the Vatican is brazenly canvassing to be elected. Most individuals would say they don’t want the put up if requested, he stated.
“It’s plenty of work,” Regoli instructed Al Jazeera. “You don’t have any time to do something for your self.”
Outcomes can typically be shocking, and consultants are cautious of speculating upfront. In 2013, for instance, Pope Francis was not even counted as a favorite within the media. It was solely after a speech he gave at one of many congregazioni that he was observed.
Right here’s what we learn about a few of the potential candidates.
What’s the course of and timeline for choosing the subsequent pope?
The Faculty of Cardinals will in the end elect one in all their quantity to be the subsequent pope. There are at present 252 cardinals, 135 of whom are cardinal electors as they’re below the age of 80 – the closing date for papal elections.
After a couple of days of conferences, the 135 voting cardinals can be sequestered within the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel on Might 7 in what is called a “conclave”. They are going to haven’t any entry to telephones, the web, or the surface world. No cardinal can depart till a reputation is pronounced, barring distinctive circumstances.
Cardinals will vote in a single or a number of secret ballots to elect the brand new pope. The winner wants a two-thirds majority.
Observers standing exterior the Vatican will know a pope has been chosen by the color of the smoke rising from the chimney of the chapel: black means no consensus, white means a brand new pope has been declared.
Conclaves normally final for a number of days or, in some circumstances, weeks. Pope Francis was elected in two days.
Who’re the voting cardinals?
Francis’s reforms modified the make-up of the Faculty of Cardinals. He appointed 80 % of the present cardinals, deciding on them from around the globe – with a specific emphasis on the International South – and selecting individuals with totally different ideological leanings.
For the primary time, international locations like Mongolia, Iran and East Timor can be represented. Among the many cardinals are people who find themselves conservative on matters equivalent to same-sex marriage and divorce, in addition to others who’re much less orthodox. The larger mixture of views – and the a lot bigger illustration of the International South – is prone to make this vote a very unpredictable one, consultants say.
What are the cardinals on the lookout for in a brand new pope?
Of their conferences earlier than the conclave, the cardinals can be making an attempt to resolve if they need a liberal-minded chief just like the late Pope Francis, a extra traditionalist pontiff like his predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI, or somebody with reasonable tendencies.
Cardinals will even probably be on the lookout for somebody expert in worldwide diplomacy, Regoli stated, with the world dealing with a number of conflicts and altering geopolitical dynamics. The church would additionally choose somebody not too younger, to make sure a comparatively quick tenure.
Ideology and geography will even play a job, historian Miles Pattenden, who’s related to the College of Oxford, instructed Al Jazeera. “Francis was identified to be spontaneous, and the church may be trying to elect somebody extra cautious in his reactions,” he stated. And, with the Catholic inhabitants rising in Asia and Africa, the cardinals might need to ship the message that an Asian or African pope is extra consultant.
Private attraction, although, is the key ingredient. As a result of lots of the cardinals have not often met, it’s exhausting to know who would possibly get alongside nicely with whom. The following pope would be the cardinal who, with out showing to take action, can persuade the others that he can characterize the church globally and handle the church’s challenges: adapting to secularisation, coping nicely with latest intercourse and monetary scandals, in addition to declining membership within the West.
Most of all, electors do look like on the lookout for a sober and unifying determine who can carry stability to the church’s central authorities after Francis’s extra revolutionary model of management.
Who’re the highest contenders?
Here’s a listing of candidates, in no explicit order, who consultants imagine are frontrunners.
Cardinal Luis “Chito” Antonio Tagle, 67
Some observers imagine the long run for the management of the church lies exterior the historically elected class of Italian cardinals.
Tagle, from the Philippines, would possibly go well with the cardinals who need that progress to be extra seen. The nation is probably the most Catholic on this planet, with 80 % of the 100 million figuring out as Catholics. If elected, Tagle could be the primary Asian pope.
Ordained a cardinal in 2012 by Pope Benedict, Tagle at present leads the church’s evangelisation programmes from the Vatican. A former archbishop of Manila, Tagle is popularly known as the “Asian Francis”. His model of management is just like the late Pope Francis’s pastoral strategy, Pattenden stated.
Whereas he’s against abortion, he’s devoted to social justice causes equivalent to migration and poverty, and has pushed for a much less harsh stance on homosexual individuals, divorcees and single moms. Senior roles inside the Holy See since 2019 have additionally seen him acquire Vatican expertise.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70
Italian and current Vatican Secretary of State, Parolin’s background and place inside the church imply he has a powerful probability of being thought of for pope. He has held the quantity two place within the Vatican since 2013.
With diplomatic stints for the church in Nigeria, Mexico, Spain and Italy, he’s considered a talented, steady hand on the world stage. He has pushed to enhance China-Vatican relations which have been strained due to the Holy See’s recognition of Taiwan.
Parolin’s supporters say that whereas he agrees with a few of Francis’s beliefs (he helps embracing the divorced and opposes the US administration’s plans for Gaza), he’s additionally a pragmatist who understands the nuances of diplomacy and should take a extra reasonable strategy than Francis. Critics, nevertheless, say he lacks pastoral expertise and would possibly put diplomacy above the church’s pursuits.
“Parolin or Tagle would possibly greatest characterize some form of continuity of the Francis model if that’s what the church decides is the best way to go,” Pattenden stated.
Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson, 76
Of three outstanding African frontrunners, Turkson, who hails from Ghana, is seen because the extra reasonable and, thus, extra suited to diplomacy. The cohort of African cardinals is, typically, considered fairly conservative, significantly with regards to the place of girls within the church and same-sex marriage.
Specialists beforehand marked Turkson as a favorite in 2013. Though he leans extra conservative than liberal, he’s against the criminalisation of homosexual relations in Ghana, the place a invoice imposing harsh penalties on homosexuality was handed.
There has by no means been an African pope, and such an election could be “ground-breaking”, Pattenden stated.
Cardinal Peter Erdo, 72
Described as cautious and risk-averse, the Hungarian priest is a revered lawyer and staunch conservative who’s prone to have backing from these in search of a change of strategy from Pope Francis’s model of management.
Erdo, because the archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, is seen by critics as pleasant to the Hungarian right-wing and anti-migrant governing occasion, Fidesz, inflicting some observers to explain his candidature as one to be afraid of. Whereas he isn’t straight against the rights of individuals emigrate, Erdo has raised questions on how integrating refugees would possibly endanger political stability in Hungary. Critics cite this stance as one near approving Fidesz’s criminalisation of migrants. Some additionally say Erdo has been unwilling to correctly examine allegations of sexual abuse within the Catholic Church.
In an opinion piece within the UK’s Guardian newspaper, Hungarian journalist Alex Faludy wrote that Erdo’s title on the listing ought to make observers “fearful”.
“Erdo’s potential ascent to the papal throne could be dangerous information for LGBTQ+ Catholics and those that have remarried after divorce,” Faludy wrote. “It ought to, nevertheless, additionally fear abuse survivors and anybody involved with the integrity of Christianity’s presence in public life.”
The priest was beforehand seen as a favorite in 2013, when he was 60 years previous, however didn’t acquire sturdy backing. On the time, observers stated he was seen as too younger.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi
One other well-recognised diplomat, an Italian and Archbishop of Bologna, Zuppi led a peace mission to Ukraine in 2023 and helped mediate an finish to the Mozambique civil struggle in 1992.
He was appointed cardinal in 2019 by Francis, whose beliefs he broadly agrees with.
As a member of the Catholic humanitarian group, the Group of Sant’Egidio, Matteo could be anticipated to give attention to growing outreach to deprived or crisis-hit communities.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu
The archbishop of Kinshasa within the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Besungu represents a key demographic within the church: the DRC has greater than seven million Catholics, making it the most important Catholic nation in Africa.
Cardinal Besungu is staunchly traditionalist. Whereas he has spoken out in opposition to human rights violations in his homeland, he’s unequivocally in opposition to blessing same-sex relationships (which Pope Francis launched), even standing up and criticising Pope Francis about his rulings on the subject.
He’s one other favorite for the conservative camp.
Cardinal Michael Czerny, 78
Initially from Czechoslovakia however raised in Canada, the cardinal leads the social justice operations of the Vatican.
He was appointed by Pope Francis and is, like him, a Jesuit – an arm of the church identified for its give attention to training, missionary work and charitable actions. The 2 males had been thought of to be shut.
Czerny has labored in Africa and Latin America and based the African Jesuit Aids Community.
Specialists say it’s potential Czerny will enchantment to progressives within the church, however there are doubts about whether or not the Faculty would instantly vote for an additional Jesuit pope.
“Usually, we don’t have two consecutive popes of the identical order,” Regoli stated.
Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60
From Italy, Pizzaballa is the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem the place he has lived since being ordained as a priest at 25 years previous.
Pope Francis appointed him as cardinal in 2023.
He has understanding of the complexities of the Palestine-Israel battle, Israel’s ongoing struggle on the Gaza Strip and Center Japanese relations.
Pizzaballa has spoken out in opposition to the Gaza struggle, rebuking each side. Within the early days of the struggle, he provided to trade himself for baby captives taken throughout Hamas’s assault on Israel on October 7, 2023.
Pattenden stated one vital issue the church will take a look at is age. Pizzaballa, at 60, is far youthful than Pope Francis was when he was elected (76). Which means, even when a powerful contender, Pizzaballa’s age won’t enchantment to some voters.
Cardinal Robert Sarah, 79
The Guinean cardinal is maybe probably the most conventional and orthodox of all of the frontrunners and is among the most recognised African church leaders.
He was appointed archbishop of Conakry on the age of 34 and was, on the time, the youngest bishop on this planet. His outspoken nature positioned him on an assassination hit listing by the previous Guinean dictator, Ahmed Sekou Toure. The listing was found after Toure’s loss of life.
In 2001, Pope John Paul II promoted Sarah to go of evangelisation, opening his sojourn into the Vatican correct.
Pope Benedict appointed him as a cardinal in 2010 and he retired from lively workplace in 2021 as prefect for Divine Worship and Self-discipline of the Sacraments.
He reportedly had turbulent relations with Pope Francis, nevertheless. Sarah’s leanings, age and Vatican expertise put him at a candy spot for these within the faculty trying to roll again Francis-era reforms on abortion, same-sex relations and the church’s closeness with different religions.
Cardinal Angelo Scola, 83
An previous Vatican saying goes thus: “Popes who enter a conclave typically emerge as cardinals.” That adage applies to Scola. Again in 2013, the Italian priest was the touted media favorite, going into the conclave because the one most individuals believed could be pope. When the white smoke went up, a gaggle of Italian bishops even issued statements that Scola had been elected. However he ultimately emerged as a cardinal as a result of Pope Francis had been elected.
A former archbishop of Milan, Scola will be unable to vote as a result of he’s above the 80-year voting restrict, however his title has once more surfaced as a reputable candidate.
His ideologies extra intently mannequin the conservationist strategy of Pope Benedict XVI who appointed him cardinal.
Whereas mute on same-sex unions to this point, Scola is strongly against feminine deacons and different left-leaning gender debates.
He has pastoral expertise however can also be a widely known professor and scholar with a number of books below his belt. He has targeted on themes of interfaith and intercultural dialogue, in addition to on evangelisation and serving to new Catholic converts.
His critics see him as an mental who may be a tad faraway from the experiences of the widespread Catholic, however his traditionalism and age may make him possibility for conservatives.
