After toppling the regime of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) chief and commander-in-chief of the brand new administration, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has appointed Mohammed al-Bashir to guide a caretaker authorities till March 1.
The transfer goals to stabilise the nation by offering primary companies to civilians and stopping an influence battle between armed teams over state assets and ministries, consultants advised Al Jazeera.
“[A caretaker government is needed] to make sure the state retains functioning and that individuals have electrical energy, water sewage and the web,” mentioned Thomas Pierret, an professional on Syria for the Institute for Analysis and Research of the Arab and Muslim World.
Nevertheless, the caretaker authorities – and HTS – might lose credibility if it refuses to share energy after three months, consultants have warned.
Right here’s what we all know in regards to the caretaker authorities and its head:
Who’s Mohammed al-Bashir?
The top of the caretaker authorities is a technocrat who headed the Syrian Salvation Authorities (SSG) in Idlib, a province in northwest Syria.
After the Syrian rebellion erupted in March 2011, Idlib grew to become an opposition stronghold. By 2017, HTS consolidated management and created the SSG out of civilian technocrats.
“Mohammed al-Bashir … has executed a fairly good job in Idlib,” mentioned Robin Yassin-Kassab, an professional on Syria and the co-author of Burning Nation: Syrians in Revolution and in Struggle.
“I perceive that it is smart to scale [the Salvation Government] as much as the entire of Syria, for now,” he added.
Al-Bashir’s background in electrical engineering, mission administration and administrative planning suggests he has the skilled know-how to keep up primary companies within the nation, analysts mentioned.
He first emerged as a minister within the HTS-backed Salvation authorities in 2021, in accordance with the caretaker authorities’s official web site
For 2 years, he served as the pinnacle of improvement and humanitarian affairs, in accordance with Assaad Al Achi, government director of Baytna, a non-governmental organisation that supported native civil society teams in Syria all through the struggle.
“He was undoubtedly interested by humanitarian work as a result of that’s the place the cash was,” Al Achi mentioned, referencing the SSG’s coverage of taxing help organisations.
On January 13, 2024, the Shura Council in Idlib elected al-Bashir as prime minister of the SSG.
Who’re the opposite ministers?
Al-Bashir has advised Al Jazeera Arabic that, in the intervening time, the ministers from the SSG would take over the nationwide ministerial portfolios. The present ministerial lineup is:
- Minister of Inside Mohammed Abdul Rahman
- Minister of Economic system and Assets Basel Abdul Aziz
- Minister of Data Muhammad Yaqoub al-Omar
- Minister of Justice Shadi Muhammad al-Waisi
- Minister of Agriculture and Irrigation Mohamed Taha al-Ahmad
- Minister of Well being Mazen Dukhan
- Minister of Growth Fadi al-Qassem
- Minister of Native Administration and Providers Mohamed Abdel Rahman Muslim
- Minister of Endowments Hussam Haj Hussein
- Minister of Training Nazir al-Qadri
- Minister of Increased Training and Scientific Analysis Abdel Moneim Abdel Hafez
Is there going to be a transition?
Regardless of al-Bashir’s distinguished position, Al Achi doesn’t imagine the caretaker prime minister has ambitions to consolidate energy over Syria.
“What worries me is that if [this caretaker government] extends [its term] for greater than three months, but when it only for three months … then that’s alright,” he mentioned.
Consultants are involved that HTS will attempt to rule all of Syria with an iron fist.
In line with a report by the Syrian Community for Human Rights, HTS subjected critics and opponents to enforced disappearances and tortured individuals to demise.
Al Jazeera requested the HTS media workplace to answer these allegations, however that they had not commented by the point of publication.
Setting as much as succeed
The caretaker authorities and HTS might ease considerations of an influence seize by proposing a roadmap detailing when negotiations with different stakeholders would start forward of forming a broader coalition, Yassin-Kassab advised Al Jazeera.
He added {that a} plan ought to purpose to implement UN Safety Council Decision 2254, which requires a transitional interval of 18 months, throughout which an inclusive coalition will draft a structure and put together for elections underneath United Nations supervision.
“[HTS] have to say that is the start of a course of that can contain each facet of society and all political leaderships,” mentioned Yassin-Kassab.
“That will reassure Syrians and the worldwide group and provides the brand new authorities way more legitimacy.”
Who’s going to pay for the transition?
Syria’s financial system is in tatters – the World Financial institution ranks its gross home product (GDP) at 129 out of 196 states.
HTS managed to lift income throughout its rule in Idlib by taxing residents, in addition to items and reduction passing by means of from the Turkish border. Nevertheless, it’s unclear whether or not the group has sufficient funds to bolster the financial system and provide primary provisions within the brief to medium time period.
Consultants imagine HTS may be incentivised to share energy by linking sanction reduction to political reforms.
Syria is on america checklist of “international locations that sponsor terrorism” and, on high of that, HTS is taken into account a “international terrorist organisation” by the European Union, Turkiye and the US.
The EU and US have additionally sanctioned a lot of the Syrian financial system, together with the power sector and the buying and selling of products associated to expertise or electrical energy provision, in accordance with Human Rights Watch (HRW).
It’s crucial that HTS shares energy with different stakeholders and civil society so as to persuade Syrians and the worldwide group that the group has modified, argues Yassin-Kassab.
“[I]t stays to be seen if that is the start of an influence seize by HTS and HTS-aligned civilian our bodies,” he advised Al Jazeera.
“I definitely hope not.”