The Washington Capitals are removed from being in all-out disaster, however hopes for his or her season undoubtedly don’t look good. After a staggering 4-0 loss in Raleigh on Saturday it’s turn out to be obvious that no matter technique this workforce introduced into the sequence merely isn’t working.
By means of three video games Carolina has dominated Washington in nearly each section of the sport. Recreation 2 in Washington now wanting extra like a blip on the radar, somewhat than being indicative of success. With Recreation 4 happening on Monday evening it’s the final finest likelihood for the Capitals to get this sequence again on observe below the load of expectation from the 2024-25 common season, and likewise the emotional strain of attempting to win a cup for Alex Ovechkin earlier than he retires following the 2025-26 season.
It’s secure to say that Washington is wanting like a deer in headlights proper, however the true query is why?
The numbers which have outlined this sequence
After we take a look at why the Hurricanes are dealing with the Capitals so simply proper now it comes down to a few key areas:
- Photographs
Carolina: 89
Washington: 56 - Puck management (5v5 Corsi for)
Carolina: 67.9%
Washington: 33% - Offensive zone begins
Carolina: 69.1%
Washington: 30.9%
What do these imply? Briefly: Carolina’s technique is working completely. Rod Brind-A’mour’s complete offensive system revolves round utilizing the forecheck to power errors out of opposing gamers and shrink the ice so he can carry his defensemen as much as heart ice and primarily play half-rink hockey. That’s working, and it’s exceptionally dangerous for the Capitals.
The shot disparity wouldn’t be so regarding, as a result of the Hurricanes’ model is to place plenty of pucks on internet — however if you mix that with poor puck management and an lack of ability to begin with the puck within the offensive zone it creates a situation the place Carolina is solely exhausting the Caps.
File that concept at the back of your head, exhaustion, as a result of it’s going to be crucial in a short time.
Getting out-muscled
This is likely one of the most astonishing parts to this sequence, and one thing I don’t suppose anybody actually noticed coming. The Hurricanes have a really small ahead unit, averaging 6’0 and 188 kilos. Examine to the Capitals similar line, who common 6’4 and 227 kilos. There is no such thing as a planet during which Washington needs to be getting pressured off the puck on the forecheck as a lot as they’re, however Carolina has proven an alarming quantity of struggle on this regard.
So the query is: Why aren’t the Capitals actually throwing their muscle round? Because it stands solely Tom Wilson appears to have any struggle on this sequence, with the remainder of the Caps enjoying a lot smaller than their frames. This wasn’t a lot of a difficulty towards the extra finesse-based Canadiens, however Washington can’t count on to coast on missing effort towards the Hurricanes.
There nearly appears to be a way of resignation from Capitals coach Spencer Carbery when he was requested why his first line is struggling, and specifically why Ovechkin hasn’t scored a degree this sequence.
“I believe total simply his line, and Dylan Strome performs an enormous half in that,” Washington coach Spencer Carbery stated. “It’s robust as a result of they’re a line that depends rather a lot on entries and creating off of entries, and also you’re simply not going to get very a lot of these towards the Carolina Hurricanes with their hole management and the size and measurement of their [defensemen].”
Right here’s the issue: It’s Carbery’s job to work out the way to get entries. Whereas it’s actually true the Canes have nice cap management and lengthy defensemen, regularly bashing the Ovi/Strome/Protas line towards it simply isn’t working.
The Ovi “downside”
The largest situation proper now could be that Carbery insists of holding Ovechkin on the primary line, and it’s simply not working. At this level in his profession you’re fairly solely getting 17 minutes of ice time from Ovechkin an evening, and that must be utilized in key scoring conditions — not bashing his head towards the Canes’ forecheck.
There’s been a constant battling of Ovechkin with both Seth Jarvis or Jackson Blake, relying on how Brind-A’mour adjusts his traces, and now we’ve obtained guys who’re 22-years-old and 21-years-old respectively attending to harass Ovechkin and sap what’s left of his 39-year-old power.
Ovechkin is the No. 1 objective scorer on the Capitals this season, and plenty of his play was predicated by Stome and Protas opening up alternatives for him, however when these passing lanes aren’t open we’ve obtained a situation the place Ovi isn’t getting any clear seems on objective.
The neatest factor Carbery may do can be to swap Ovechkin to the third line for Andrew Maniapane. That may enable extra situations the place Ovi is up towards the far much less athletic Jordan line of Carolina’s with Jordan Martinook and Jordan Staal.
It could be exchanging some top-tier passing for Ovi, however give him some open seems for the primary time this season. It’s the one place on the Canes’ traces which is previous, and that must be exploited with this sequence on the road, somewhat than tiring out Ovi and hoping issues may bounce in one other path.
Monday is a must-win for Washington
Presently down 2-1 within the sequence there’s no margin for error. The Capitals have to return to DC with this sequence leveled if they’ve any likelihood to shifting on. Carbery has remarked that Carolina is an awfully robust place to play because of crowd noise, and that will likely be turn out to be orders of magnitude worse if the Hurricanes have an opportunity to shut out the sequence at dwelling in Recreation 6 — and that works below the idea they gained’t win in DC.
It’s time to hit the panic button and do one thing about this. Ovi must be put able the place he can thrive, and Tom Wilson needs to be put in a better spot the place he can use his physicality to place some harm on Seth Jarvis and Andrei Svechnikov.
Because it stands although the Caps appear resigned to maintain attempting the identical factor and hoping it’ll magically work, however proper now there’s no magic to how Washington is enjoying.