Yearly, it seems like a handful of groups don’t belong within the NFL Playoffs, and solely a choose few can win all of it. This 12 months is not any completely different. There are high-flying offenses, quarterbacks who all the time appear to discover a approach, and some groups which might be completely happy to be right here.
Immediately, we’ll separate the pretenders from the contenders by placing every crew right into a tier to find out who has the very best likelihood at hoisting a Lombardi trophy a month from now.
Begin making trip plans
14. Houston Texans
The Texans kick off the underside quartet after struggling all season in opposition to a bottom-10 schedule. C.J. Stroud went from sensational to suspect in a single calendar 12 months. The offense was lackluster when wholesome, and so they’ve solely trended within the improper course since dropping Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell for the season.
If Houston wins within the first spherical, it’ll be due to their protection. They make you one-dimensional, don’t permit the massive play by means of the air, and completed the season with the second-highest strain fee in opposition to the quarterback.
Star gamers rise to the event. That’s one thing Stroud did at Ohio State on the largest stage. If Houston advances past the primary spherical, it’ll be as a result of Stroud, Will Anderson Jr., or Derek Stingley Jr. carry out like the highest total draft picks they have been coming into the league. Don’t rule out a Nico Collins breakout sport, both.
Nonetheless, accidents at huge receiver and limitations on offense give Houston the bottom ceiling of any crew within the playoffs.
13. Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels got here into the league because the reigning Heisman winner. These forms of gamers have unrealistic expectations. The Commanders had no enterprise making the playoffs. However Daniels helped Washington rating a minimum of 26 factors in eight of their video games.
Kliff Kingsbury’s second likelihood hasn’t gone unnoticed in the course of the head teaching cycle. He’s helped Washington’s floor sport rank fourth in speeding success fee since Week 11. In high-leverage video games, Daniels’s improv abilities on the bottom have bailed Washington out time and time once more. Sprinkle in a giant play right here and there, and that’s how the Commanders made the postseason.
It’s the opposite aspect of the ball that’ll be the rationale the Commanders are one-and-done within the playoffs. The Cooper Rush-led Cowboys scored 34 factors in opposition to Washington. Pittsburgh, whose offense leaves so much to be desired, reached 28 factors.
Washington obtained much-needed reinforcements, getting Jonathan Allen again in Week 17. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore can also be a giant increase, however there’s nonetheless little purpose to consider these two will probably be sufficient to decelerate Tampa Bay. Washington is forward of schedule, and that’ll present this weekend.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers
Mike Tomlin’s crew went 0-4 down the stretch, failing to surpass 17 factors in every contest. However profitable attractive within the playoffs doesn’t matter, and the Steelers are the kind of crew to win a sport 18-16 — ask the Ravens.
Pittsburgh is nice sufficient in opposition to the run defensively to muck any sport up. We’ll get to see playoff Russ in motion. Historical past means that he’ll make the Steelers aggressive. George Pickens is one reception away from placing Pittsburgh in scoring place, and possibly Arthur Smith will make Jaylen Warren the point of interest for a change.
It’s powerful to overlook the previous month or a loss to the Browns in November. Tomlin’s “us in opposition to the world” mentality works within the common season, however the Steelers by no means felt like a crew that would string collectively a number of wins in opposition to high quality opponents, and that gained’t change this month.
11. Los Angeles Chargers
Typically talking, every time you’ve got an elite quarterback, you’ve got an opportunity to beat anyone. Justin Herbert’s playoff debut comes on the street along with his finest goal, a rookie slot receiver.
Herbert has the very best proportion of on-target throws of any playoff quarterback and was second in PFF’s “big-time throws.” We’ve seen Herbert bail the Chargers out of suboptimal conditions all 12 months and go above and past what he’s requested.
Regardless of going through the twenty fourth best schedule of defenses, this can be a Chargers crew that completed twenty ninth within the NFL in speeding success fee. You may’t be taken critically should you can’t run the ball within the playoffs.
It doesn’t assist that Joshua Palmer, who’s fourth on the crew in targets, has been dominated out. That places extra strain on rookie Ladd McConkey.
The Chargers are one other crew forward of schedule. Their protection will present its flaws, doubtless inflicting them to be one-and-done within the playoffs. At any time when they performed an offense with a pull down the stretch, Los Angeles struggled to get off the sphere.
This isn’t a crew that feels reliable, particularly on the street.
So that you’re saying there’s an opportunity
10. Denver Broncos
These subsequent three groups performed with sufficient variance all through the season the place it wouldn’t be shocking for them to tug off a minimum of one upset. Does that imply it’ll occur? Not essentially.
However just a few weeks in the past the Denver Broncos had a commanding first half lead over the Chargers, however blew it as the sport progressed. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix ended the season on a excessive observe, finishing a minimum of 72 % of his passes in every of the ultimate three video games. Denver didn’t play essentially the most tough schedule, however they scored in bunches.
Denver completed sixth in EPA per play since Week 11, that means they’ve the potential of producing large performs each drive. That’s the important thing to success within the playoffs whenever you get fewer possessions than common.
The higher information for Denver is that they completed third in EPA per play defensively, and have been probably the most stingiest speeding defenses within the second half. Zach Allen lastly bought the popularity he deserved, whereas Nik Bonitto is a budding star, and Patrick Surtain isn’t the cornerback you need to check.
Denver sits on the high of the “forward of schedule groups.” They’ve every part it is advisable pull off an upset, however we fear that there’s not sufficient firepower exterior of Courtland Sutton to make a run.
9. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings can be ranked increased in the event that they have been enjoying at residence. Their protection makes you earn each yard, are wonderful at stopping the run, and might trigger sufficient chaos to drive you right into a mistake.
Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are one of many higher huge receiver duos within the NFL. It’s a shock every time a crew holds Jefferson underneath 100 receiving yards.
However Aaron Jones by no means bought going in the course of the second half of the season. You’re telling me the Vikings hopes relaxation on the suitable arm of Sam Darnold on the street? Have enjoyable with that.
This can be a Vikings crew that struggled to tug away from the Jaguars, Titans, Bears, and Seahawks on the street within the second half, and didn’t rating double-digits in opposition to the Lions. They’ve expertise, however are a special squad on the freeway.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Love the Buccaneers. Hate their draw. Baker Mayfield is the quarterback you need to go to battle with in a do-or-die scenario. Mayfield places his physique on the road for each completion.
Mike Evans, Cade Otton, and the emergence of Jalen Mcmillan offers Tampa Bay a stable trio of move catchers. They’re additionally efficient utilizing their operating backs within the passing sport.
Talking of, now’s the time for Liam Coen to unleash Bucky Irving. It’s the playoffs. Irving single-handedly gained the Bucs video games down the stretch. Reward him now that it’s the playoffs.
Tampa Bay was second in EPA per play and success fee offensively. They will rating, and I absolutely anticipate them to gentle the scoreboard up in opposition to Washington. However can they get any stops transferring ahead? Their numbers say sure, however the schedule says they haven’t performed anyone.
We’ll consider it once we see it, however wouldn’t rule out Tampa Bay giving whoever they face within the divisional spherical extra points than anticipated.
One thing smells fishy right here
7. Detroit Lions
If I haven’t misplaced you but, I in all probability will by having these three groups lumped collectively. Let’s begin with Detroit, the No. 1 seed within the NFC.
In Week 18, many individuals noticed a dominant 31-9 efficiency. I noticed a protection that would’ve simply given up 24 factors had Darnold hit three or 4 routine performs.
The week earlier than, the Lions allowed 34 factors to the 49ers. In that sport, the Niners missed a pair of discipline targets and threw two interceptions. So, it might have simply been 40+ for San Francisco.
Two weeks earlier than, Josh Allen and the Payments scored 48. We all know the Lions can rating. However you must have a spine defensively, and I haven’t seen something to recommend they’ll get stops when they should within the playoffs, which is why they’re ranked so low.
6. Inexperienced Bay Packers
Should you requested me which crew was essentially the most tough to explain, it’d be the cheeseheads. There have been factors in the course of the common season the place I believed Inexperienced Bay was the very best crew within the NFC. Accidents, inconsistencies, and a passing offense with out an identification will forestall the Packers from profitable the Tremendous Bowl. Shedding big-play risk Christian Watson will show expensive.
When Edgerrin Cooper is on the sphere, the Packers have among the finest defenses within the NFL. They restrict explosive performs as a lot as anyone Inexperienced Bay’s problem is as soon as the opponent reaches the pink zone, it normally ends in a landing.
I do know Jordan Love has a fadeaway throw of 1 foot for 40 yards in his again pocket. The explanation you exit and get a Josh Jacobs is for the playoffs. Matt LaFLeur may have the Packers in the very best conditions attainable, and Jeff Hafley’s protection will proceed to play bully ball.
However one thing has been off with the Packers all 12 months and projecting them to do one thing thy haven’t all 12 months — persistently beat the nice groups on their schedule — seems like a giant ask.
5. Buffalo Payments
Buffalo has arguably the very best participant within the NFL at Josh Allen. At any time when they take the sphere, it’s a shock if the Payments don’t rating 30 factors.
The addition of Amari Cooper hasn’t executed a lot on a right down to down foundation, though Cooper has a giant reception a sport. It nonetheless seems like Khalil Shakir the one huge receiver Allen can belief, however that’s not ok within the playoffs.
James Prepare dinner has been all or nothing, however the nothing occurs extra usually than many are prepared to confess, particularly in opposition to the highest tier of defenses. So, Buffalo will do what they all the time do and anticipate Allen to get them into good spots and out of porous conditions. That works within the common season, however I’ve my doubts within the postseason.
Allen may not have a alternative to attain 30 the best way Buffalo’s protection has been enjoying. If I’ve a tough time seeing them stopping Denver, who will it look in opposition to Baltimore the subsequent week? Or Kansas Metropolis after that? The Payments are one other crew I’ve struggled with all season, and consider they’re extra paper tigers than Tremendous Bowl champs.
The actual threats
4. Los Angeles Rams
Playoff McVay. Playoff Stafford. Better of all, the Rams path to the massive sport means they’ll need to undergo the defenses of the Vikings and Lions earlier than the NFC Championship. McVay — who’s the very best coach within the NFL for my cash — isn’t going to wrestle on offense when enjoying in a dome.
Which one of many above defenses do you belief to decelerate Puka Nacua? Because the offensive line has gotten more healthy, the Rams speeding assault has stabilized their offense. That makes their play-action and display screen sport all of the simpler.
The Rams run protection has quietly been efficient down the stretch. Their line of defense, led by rookie Jared Verse, could be essentially the most underrated group in all the playoffs. They play bully ball and dwell on the opposite aspect of the scrimmage.
This crew is essentially the most slept on within the playoff discipline. The Rams are my choose to characterize the NFC within the Tremendous Bowl.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
Expertise-wise, the Eagles are superior to everyone within the NFC. Not even two months in the past, they destroyed the Rams on their residence discipline. The Eagles beat the Packers, Commanders, Ravens, and Steelers this season.
To me, that is the very best protection within the postseason. Jalen Carter is unblockable. Josh Sweat persistently wins, and the pace, athleticism, and instincts on the Eagles protection is second to none. The one fear can be inexperience within the secondary and at linebacker. Qunyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean are first-year gamers. Nakobe Dean is mainly a rookie. A wise coach, possibly one residing in Los Angeles, will look to isolate these three and check their youth.
For a crew with Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, and Devonta Smith, you’d suppose the Eagles would cruise to 35 factors a sport.
With their offensive line, how might they not? Once more, talent-wise, it’s tough to doubt Philly. However Hurts hasn’t performed significant soccer in almost a month, and so they undergo lulls offensively that make you marvel how checked within the Eagles are. However it’s the playoffs, and there are good to nice gamers all around the discipline for the Eagles. I see them squeaking by the Packers, blowing out Tampa Bay, and falling flat on their faces at residence in opposition to the Rams in what will probably be a disappointing end to a formidable season.
2. Baltimore Ravens
Will this lastly be the season the “playoff Lamar” jokes stop?
It was one other ho-hum season for Jackson after he threw for over 4,100 yards and totaled 45 touchdowns. Baltimore’s offense would undergo stretches the place they seemed clunky. Then, you’d search for and see they’ve 30+ factors. They’re the very best speeding offense in soccer, and also you’d suppose Todd Monken leans on Lamar’s legs greater than ever.
Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, and Isaiah Possible are constant. But when this offense reaches the Tremendous Bowl, it’ll be as a result of Derrick Henry, who tied for the NFL’s lead with 25 rushes of a minimum of 15 yards and led the NFL in first downs.
Statistically, Baltimore boasts the very best protection within the NFL since Week 11. Kyle Hamilton is a unicorn. Roquan Smith has been a top-2 linebacker for 2 years. Rookie Nate Wiggins has been nearly as good as marketed at cornerback. And the entrance seven punches you within the face each snap, controls the road of scrimmage, and might strain you from the within or the sting.
There aren’t many flaws on this Ravens crew. Every other 12 months, they’d be the crew to beat. However like each different 12 months, there’s the identical crew standing of their approach.
The crew to beat
1. Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
Amazingly, the Chiefs gained 15 video games this season. I waffled forwards and backwards between “Is that this the worst 15-win crew of all-time” and “no person is thrashing them within the playoffs.” The latter is true now that Joe Thuney is at left sort out. Go safety was the largest purpose for concern within the playoffs because the Chiefs cycled by means of rookies and journeymen earlier than their hand was pressured to maneuver Thuney.
Thuney at left sort out and Hollywood Brown makes this the very best model of the Chiefs offense we’ve seen all season. It’s a small pattern dimension, however they scored 27 and 29 factors in opposition to two playoff opponents, and did so with out a lot resistance.
Brown and Xavier Worthy add a big-play ingredient that had been lacking all season. Sprinkle in DeAndre Hopkins on third downs and within the pink zone, and Travis Kelce on the six performs when Patrick Mahomes is operating for his life as Jawann Taylor avoids getting penalized, and I’m unsure who’s stopping the Chiefs.
The schedule helps. Within the divisional spherical, Kansas Metropolis faces the lowest-seed remaining. Then, they’ll get Baltimore or Buffalo, earlier than going through the NFC opponent. I’ll take the very best quarterback to ever take a snap along with his full arsenal of weapons at Arrowhead Stadium.
Oh yeah, the protection.
Chris Jones led all defensive tackles in move rush wins this season. He’s the definition of a game-wrecker. George Karlaftis doesn’t get the love he deserves. He’ll make a number of performs a sport to affect the result.
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will combine and match personnel till he finds what works. Spags’ blitz packages are a factor of magnificence, and I wouldn’t need anyone else calling performs as he all the time finds methods to control the opponents move safety.
I hate to play spoiler, however the Chiefs are profitable all of it. Once more. They’re the crew to beat and will probably be shocking if Mahomes isn’t lifting one other Lombardi Trophy a month from now.