Matchup to observe: Buffalo’s offense vs. Denver’s man protection
In my view, that is probably the most fascinating recreation of the weekend. Buffalo and Denver share lots of strengths, however the collision course between arguably the most effective protection within the NFL and some of the complementary offenses within the NFL is perhaps the most effective matchup of the weekend. The Broncos play a LOT of man protection: actually, per SIS they’re third within the NFL in whole snaps of man protection performed.
After Broncos’ DC Vance Joseph inserted CB Riley Moss into the lineup, their secondary has taken off, feeling snug enjoying man protection and getting inventive with pressures. I might advise the Payments to not throw at CB Patrick Surtain II, as a result of the most effective nook within the NFL will make you pay as a rule. Mix that with a cross rush unit that has so many ranging methods of how they win, and you bought a stew cooking. Not solely does this assist in the passing recreation, however thriving in a lot man protection, Cowl 1 particularly, lets you be gapped out within the run recreation and play a lot faster downhill, which is already an issue for opposing offenses as a result of DTs Zach Allen and DJ Jones have been Bebop and Rocksteady in the midst of that protection. Even regardless of enjoying a little bit lighter on the sting, the Broncos are fourth within the NFL in opposition to the run, due to badass performs like this:
The issue, nonetheless, lies in the truth that the Payments and Josh Allen have shredded man protection this 12 months. Per Sumer Sports activities, Allen is seventh within the NFL in Success Fee vs. man protection, and the Payments as a complete have discovered so many solutions in opposition to protection that may make sense to play in opposition to a staff with out many constant separators on the sector. What actually units it off, nonetheless, is that Josh Allen scrambles a lot extra in opposition to man protection. Not solely is his 9.6% scramble charge third within the NFL amongst passers with 100 makes an attempt in opposition to man, it’s an enormous leap from his 6.5% scramble charge in opposition to zone protection. Whilst you would assume that scrambling in opposition to the Broncos could be good after they’re in man protection, in whole they solely enable a 47.1% Success Fee in opposition to QB scrambles. So, how do you beat this staff then?
Payments’ OC Joe Brady has performed lots of work with getting his operating backs concerned within the passing recreation, but it surely particularly reveals up in opposition to man protection. SIS has charted Allen with 18 makes an attempt to operating backs in opposition to man protection. On these makes an attempt, he’s 15/18, has thrown 4 TDs and has a 77.8% Optimistic Play Fee. It comes on performs like these to RB Ty Johnson in opposition to Detroit, the place Brady makes use of the movement to point man or zone, then leaks Johnson out the backfield on a rail route in opposition to a slower LB. Have a look at how the run faux holds the linebacker for simply lengthy sufficient so Johnson can leak out and get a step on him.
Denver’s protection is unimaginable, but when there’s one crack within the armor it’s that they’re thirty first in DVOA on passes to operating backs. Whenever you play lots of man protection, the linebackers are omitted to dry in opposition to good receiving backs, so this might find yourself being a giant Ty Johnson recreation. Denver linebackers Justin Strnad and Cody Barton should play their greatest video games in man protection on Sunday, since you higher consider that the Payments are bringing all their solutions.
Particular person battles to observe: Payments’ WR Khalil Shakir and TE Dalton Kincaid vs. Broncos’ CB Ja’Quan McMillian, security PJ Locke and security Brandon Jones