Islamabad, Pakistan – As Pakistan remained embroiled in a disagreement with its archrival India – following a dramatic alternate of missiles and drones almost two weeks in the past – it this week superior diplomatic efforts with two different neighbors: China and Afghanistan, which may result in the formal resumption of diplomatic ties between Islamabad and Kabul after almost 4 years.
In an “casual” trilateral assembly held in Beijing on Could 21, the overseas ministers of China, Pakistan and Afghanistan convened below a discussion board first launched in 2017, and which final met in Could 2023.
This time, a key final result from the assembly, in accordance with Chinese language Overseas Minister Wang Yi, was a renewed willingness by each Pakistan and Afghanistan to revive diplomatic relations after heightened tensions lately.
“Afghanistan and Pakistan expressed clear willingness to raise diplomatic relations and agreed in precept to alternate ambassadors as quickly as attainable. China welcomed this and can proceed to provideassistance for the enchancment of Afghanistan-Pakistan relations,” Wang mentioned.
He added that the China-Pakistan Financial Hall (CPEC) – a $62bn mega challenge below China’s Belt and Highway Initiative (BRI) – will now be prolonged into Afghanistan.
A Pakistani diplomat with direct information of the talks advised Al Jazeera that the subsequent spherical of the trilateral conferences can be held “very quickly”, inside a number of weeks, to construct on the momentum from the Beijing conclave.
“I’m moderately optimistic concerning the outcomes. It was a terrific confidence- and trust-building train between the three nations,” mentioned the official, talking on situation of anonymity concerning the Beijing assembly.
Trilateral diplomacy amid Indo-Pakistan tensions
The assembly got here after a four-day standoff between Pakistan and India, with each nations claiming “victory” and launching diplomatic offensives to say dominance.
The battle, from Could 7 to Could 10, adopted Indian strikes on what it referred to as “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan, in retaliation for the Pahalgam assault in Indian-administered Kashmir final month that left 26 civilians lifeless. India blamed the assault on Pakistan-based armed teams, an allegation Islamabad denies.
Whereas China urged restraint on either side, its assist for Pakistan was evident on the entrance strains of the battle, with the Pakistani army utilizing Chinese language fighter jets, missiles, and air defence programs.
Then again, Indian Overseas Minister S Jaishankar mentioned on Could 15 that he appreciated Afghan performing Overseas Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s “condemnation” of the Pahalgam assault, in a dialog between the 2. Indian media additionally reported a go to to New Delhi by senior Taliban determine and deputy inside minister, Ibrahim Sadr, in early Could.
Mustafa Hyder Sayed, govt director of the Islamabad-based Pakistan-China Institute, referred to as the Beijing assembly “very vital”, given Afghanistan’s geopolitical sensitivity.
For Pakistan and China, the “battle with India has strengthened strategic readability” on the necessity to work carefully with Afghanistan, Sayed mentioned.
Kabul-based political analyst Tameem Bahiss agreed.
“This [the call between Muttaqi and Jaishankar] alerts a serious shift in India-Afghanistan relations, one that might increase considerations in Islamabad amid an already risky regional local weather,” he mentioned. “The timing of this trilateral assembly, not simply its content material, displays an pressing want for coordination amongst these three nations as new geopolitical dynamics take form in South and Central Asia.”
Deputy Prime Minister/Overseas Minister, Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar @MIshaqDar50, Member of the CPC Political Bureau & Overseas Minister of the Individuals’s Republic of China, Wang Yi, and Performing Overseas Minister of Afghanistan, Amir Khan Muttaqi, held a casual trilateral assembly in… pic.twitter.com/xbVcmUDijD
— Ministry of Overseas Affairs – Pakistan (@ForeignOfficePk) Could 21, 2025
A rocky relationship
When the Afghan Taliban returned to energy in August 2021, many noticed it as a win for Pakistan, given its historic ties to the group. From 1996 via 2021, Pakistan was one of many Taliban’s key allies. India, in the meantime, considered the Taliban as a proxy of Pakistan’s intelligence companies and refused to have interaction with it.
Nonetheless, relations between Pakistan and the Taliban have deteriorated.
Pakistan has accused the Afghan Taliban of permitting teams like Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to launch assaults throughout the border, an allegation the Taliban vehemently deny. The TTP, fashioned in 2007, shares ideological roots with the Afghan Taliban however operates independently.
In keeping with the Pak Institute for Peace Research, Pakistan suffered 521 assaults in 2024 – a 70 p.c enhance from the earlier yr – leading to almost 1,000 civilian and safety personnel deaths.
However in a visit that was seen as a possible breakthrough in strained ties, Pakistan’s Overseas Minister Ishaq Dar visited Kabul on April 19, simply days earlier than the Pahalgam assault.
Ihsanullah Tipu, an Islamabad-based safety analyst, says Pakistan’s renewed diplomatic outreach to Afghanistan prioritises key considerations, with safety taking priority over commerce, border disputes, and border closures, a sentiment he mentioned China additionally shares.
“To foster significant commerce ties, Pakistan’s safety considerations have to be addressed first,” Tipu advised Al Jazeera, warning that failure to take action may escalate tensions to armed battle.
“However given China’s world affect and shut ties with each Pakistan and Afghanistan, Beijing can play a pivotal position as a guarantor of any commitments made,” added Tipu, who co-founded the safety analysis portal The Khorasan Diary.
Frequent safety threats
Whereas Pakistan continues to accuse the Afghan Taliban of harbouring fighters who assault targets in Pakistan, many of those assaults have been directed at Chinese language nationals engaged on CPEC initiatives.
Pakistani authorities figures estimate that about 20,000 Chinese language nationals dwell within the nation. No less than 20 have been killed in assaults since 2021 in provinces like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Teams together with the TTP have claimed duty.
China has additionally expressed concern over the East Turkestan Islamic Motion (ETIM), alleging that its fighters use Afghan territory to stage assaults towards China.
Sayed of PCI harassed that each Pakistan and China see safety as their “core curiosity” in Afghanistan.
“It is a shared menace, and previously the ETIM has additionally had a significance presence in Afghanistan. And these militant networks are related with one another as effectively. So that could be a pre-requisite for any cooperation to maneuver ahead, to first neutralise these terrorist outfits, which appear to be working freely and comfortably in Afghanistan,” he mentioned.
Nonetheless, Bahiss famous that for the reason that Taliban’s return to energy, most regional nations, together with China, have discovered the safety state of affairs inside Afghanistan acceptable, enabling ongoing financial engagement.
“The important thing exception is Pakistan, which continues to face severe threats from Afghan soil. Whereas Pakistan prioritises eliminating or containing the TTP, Kabul is targeted on commerce, transit, and regional integration,” he mentioned.
That is the place China’s pivotal position may come into the image, the Kabul-based analyst mentioned, including that the nation is uniquely positioned to mediate by encouraging safety cooperation whereas additionally advancing commerce and transit initiatives that profit all three nations.
India-Afghanistan ties and Pakistan’s considerations
In the course of the civilian governments in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2021, India and Afghanistan developed shut ties, regardless of a number of assaults on Indian diplomatic missions by the Taliban and its allies.
In latest months, there was elevated interplay between officers from New Delhi and Kabul, together with the latest Jaishankar-Muttaqi dialog.
Does this warming of ties increase alarm in Islamabad? Sayed doesn’t assume so.
“Pakistan doesn’t distrust Kabul. However Pakistan has requested for motion. The rulers there must stroll the discuss relating to TTP and different terrorist outfits. I don’t assume both Beijing or Islamabad opposes Kabul having constructive relations with India, so long as it doesn’t compromise the pursuits of Pakistan and China,” he mentioned.
Nonetheless, Bahis mentioned New Delhi’s rapprochement with the Taliban may result in worries in Pakistan and China, each of which have traditionally had tense ties with India.
“Whereas latest India-Afghanistan contacts are nonetheless in early phases, their timing might increase considerations in Islamabad,” he mentioned.
“Afghanistan has the sovereign proper to have interaction with any nation, together with India. Nevertheless it should tread fastidiously. Clear messaging is crucial to make sure that its rising ties with New Delhi aren’t misinterpreted as threats by different regional gamers,” Bahiss mentioned. “Balancing these complicated relationships would require diplomacy, transparency, and mutual respect.”