Syria’s debt to Iran is estimated at USD 30 billion. This determine, originating from the Workplace of the Iranian Presidency, was leaked in August 2023. It represents the value Iran has paid since 2011 to maintain Assad in energy. The reimbursement of this huge debt is all of the extra unlikely on condition that these now in energy in Syria harbor a deep and enduring aversion towards the Islamic Republic for its near-unconditional help of the previous dictator.
It needs to be famous that Iran has nonetheless not recovered the USD 1 trillion owed by Iraq for reparations following the bloody warfare Saddam Hussein launched in 1980, which lasted eight years. But, the 2 nations now get pleasure from good relations, with bilateral commerce steadily rising over the previous decade. Nonetheless, Iran has seen none of its cash, whereas Kuwait, for its half, has efficiently recovered the USD 50 billion Iraq owed it for the 1990 invasion. Clearly, Iran pays the value for its lack of worldwide help and networks, benefits from which Kuwait tremendously advantages.
Commerce and financial relations between Iran and Syria had been various, encompassing — till Assad’s downfall — sectors resembling vitality, industrial items, automobiles, arms, petrochemicals, building supplies, monetary investments, and vital money flows introduced into Syria by Iranian pilgrims visiting sacred Shiite websites close to Damascus. Over 14 years, Iran exported a mean of 60,000 barrels of oil per day to Syria. At USD 50 per barrel, Syria owes USD 1 billion yearly, amounting to USD 14 billion since 2011 on this sector alone. For instance, an Iranian supertanker carrying 750,000 barrels needed to flip again within the Gulf of Suez on December 8 resulting from assaults by what had been nonetheless “rebels” on the time.
Now in energy, these rebels are unlikely to be inclined to honor the nation’s debt. But, Iranian authorities had been already anxious and unsure about recovering their funds even below Assad. This is the reason they multiplied agreements and contracts with him throughout a variety of sectors to safe at the very least some return on their investments. In September 2022, a serious contract involving eight tasks was signed between the 2 nations, below which Damascus would pay Tehran USD 18 billion. Iran was speculated to spend USD 1 billion and get better USD 18 billion over a interval of fifty years. One other contract granted Iran management of the Syrian port of Tartus for 49 years, mechanically renewable for an additional 49, extending till 2093. On November 13, 2024 — only one month earlier than Assad fled — the Iranian Parliament handed a legislation establishing the overall liberalisation of commerce with Syria, in hopes of claiming the lion’s share of the nation’s reconstruction.
To this finish, Iran not solely despatched army advisors to Syria but additionally deployed expert personnel akin to missi dominici, facilitating commerce exchanges and monitoring these bilateral agreements. Some sources estimate that there are at present 10,000 Iranian officers in Syria, whose destiny has now grow to be unsure. This ambiguous scenario is additional sophisticated by the truth that these substantial expenditures — most of which relate to civilian tasks in Syria — are literally funded from Iran’s army funds below the framework of “superior safety” agreements between the 2 nations.
In style discontent, which Iranian authorities have lengthy ignored, was already evident earlier than Assad’s ouster, with many media retailers usually expressing outrage over these funds being diverted from the nation’s economic system, which is in dire straits. At the moment, an rising variety of nationwide and native political leaders are overtly questioning this coverage, as Syria’s USD 30 billion debt quantities to at least 10 % of Iran’s GDP.
Learn Extra: Germany Holds Again Europe
A model of this text was first printed on michelsanti.fr
For extra on the creator, Michel Santi and his unique opinion items like this one, go to his web site right here: michelsanti.fr
For extra on the most recent in world financial and enterprise reads, click on right here.