NFL midseason grades: Contenders & pretenders amongst Packers, Seahawks, Falcons, Steelers and extra

Halfway by the NFL season, we’re beginning to see the actually elite groups separate themselves on the prime of the league. The Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, and Kansas Metropolis Chiefs fall on this class as main candidates to succeed in the Tremendous Bowl. We’re additionally seeing some actually horrid groups separate themselves on the backside of the league. The Patriots, Jaguars and Saints fall into this class, groups whose seasons are just about useless within the water at this level.

Nonetheless, what will we make of the groups in between them? The center class of the NFL has by no means felt bigger, with many of the league nonetheless hovering round .500. There are some extremely enjoyable and good groups, however all with some massive flaws as effectively. So how will we separate these groups which can be true contenders from groups who’ve benefitted from some luck this season? That’s the purpose in the present day, to parse by the center class of the NFL and see who can actually make a deep run within the postseason, and who may not have the horses this 12 months.

Utilizing FTN Fantasy’s Crew DVOA scores, we’ll separate the highest 5 in Crew DVOA and the underside 12 in the identical metric, hopefully getting groups 6-19 to debate. Within the course of, we’re flipping the Buffalo Payments and San Francisco 49ers, as a result of I believe the Payments are among the many NFL’s elite. So let’s hop in and see which groups are contenders and that are pretenders, beginning with the Tremendous Bowl runner ups from final season.

San Francisco 49ers: Contenders (hesitantly)

Part of me needs to imagine that this 49ers’ season is finished. Already with losses to the Rams, Cardinals and Vikings, they’ve put themselves behind the eight-ball on the subject of playoff rivalry, and nonetheless have video games towards Tampa Bay, Inexperienced Bay and Detroit arising with the opposite division video games. The 49er protection isn’t unhealthy this 12 months, however it’s only a bit off the usual we affiliate with this staff. They’re fifteenth in Defensive EPA per play and sixteenth in Success Price, making them nearly completely common, a drop down from their elite ranks. Mix that with dropping WR Brandon Aiyuk to a torn ACL and also you get a staff that’s been severely hit by the harm bug and the general mind drain of being one of the best staff within the convention for 5 or so years.

But, I discover myself nonetheless believing on this staff. RB Christian McCaffrey might be coming again after the bye week, as will WR Jauan Jennings. It stays to be seen how efficient McCaffrey shall be after lacking a big portion of the season, however his potential to maintain San Francisco out of man protection conditions and be probably the most explosive portion of the Niners’ offense is essential with Aiyuk out for the season. I wish to say this staff gained’t make it, however so long as Kyle Shanahan is teaching I believe the Niners are contenders…possibly.

Picture by Tim Warner/Getty Photographs

Houston Texans: Pretenders

The Texans are a bizarre staff. A irritating staff, if you’ll.

Regardless of having all of the makings of a staff prepared to leap into the waters of the elite this season, they simply haven’t put collectively constant stretches of play. A big a part of this falls on the offense, who has an issue up entrance. They’re twentieth in Adjusted Line Yards, useless final within the NFL in share of runs the place the again is hit at or behind the road of scrimmage, and CJ Stroud has been sacked 21 instances. All of those got here to a head in a befuddling Thursday Evening loss to the New York Jets the place Stroud was sacked eight instances and solely accomplished 11 of his 30 passes. Defensively, I believe they’re fairly good, however are inclined to plenty of explosive performs downfield, having the third-highest DVOA allowed on deep passes in your entire league.

WR Nico Collins coming again ought to assist the offense return to some type of good play, however I’m undecided if this staff is prepared but to be a severe playoff contender.

Washington Commanders: Contenders

I nonetheless have my doubts in regards to the sustainability of all of this, however make no mistake about it: the 7-2 Commanders are contenders within the NFC. Their offense, led by rookie sensation Jayden Daniels and star wideout Terry McLaurin, is placing up extraordinarily environment friendly numbers, sitting fairly at first in offensive EPA per play and second in DVOA on that very same facet of the ball. They keep out of apparent passing conditions, and even after they do, they get some hero performs from Daniels and McLaurin, who’ve displayed a mind-meld in contrast to something I’ve seen from a rookie QB this early. As soon as they get RB Brian Robinson again, the run recreation turns into much more potent.

I’ve plenty of questions in regards to the viability of a protection that’s simply okay, but when the offense can play like they’ve, they’ll get a shot in a bizarre NFC.

Picture by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Photographs

Inexperienced Bay Packers: Contenders

I nonetheless place confidence in the Packers, regardless of a humbling 24-14 loss to the Detroit Lions on Sunday. Plenty of that religion is reliant on a wholesome Jordan Love, nonetheless. It was clear on Sunday that Love wasn’t 100% as a consequence of a groin harm suffered towards Jacksonville, and his motion was compromised, resulting in some actually boneheaded performs.

Holding the Lions to solely 24 factors is a testomony to each the climate affecting the sport and the Packers’ protection, however the offense has to get extra from their youth in a lot of these video games. Love had a foul recreation total, the receivers mixed for six drops and penalties harm their staff. However once more, I believe I’ve seen extra sustainable offense from the Packers than not, so I’ll hold them within the contender class.

Philadelphia Eagles: Contender (hesitantly)

Similar to the Texans above them, the Eagles are an extremely irritating staff. Regardless of beating the Jaguars 28-23, the offense sputtered for many of the recreation and had been actively hamstrung by their head coach and his rollercoaster determination making in vital moments. That’s probably the most bewildering half about this staff. Nick Sirianni feels incapable of creating a sound determination, and it trickles down by the remainder of the employees. For instance: a rollout cross on 4th and 1 regardless of having Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts on the staff. Or possibly kicking a 58 yard area purpose as a substitute of making an attempt to ice the sport by simply going for it. Or how about all of the failed 4th down conversions? These items all add up and it places the pinnacle coach immediately in entrance of the expertise making an attempt to win the sport. If the Eagles make the playoffs and sputter out once more, it’ll be due to the pinnacle coach.

Nonetheless, Philly is a contender due to stated expertise. They’ve too many stars on offense and it feels just like the protection is coming collectively on the proper level within the season. Including CB Cooper DeJean to the beginning lineup has helped mix what Vic Fangio needs to do within the secondary, and so they’re getting high quality play from LBs Zack Baun and Nakobe Dean. Their inconsistent cross rush may be what will get them on the defensive facet of the ball, however they’ve performed effectively.

The Eagles are contenders, however till Nick Sirianni exhibits he’s able to not reducing out his personal groups’ legs from underneath them, they’re nothing greater than that.

Picture by Joe Sargent/Getty Photographs

Pittsburgh Steelers: Contender (hesitantly)

One other hesitant contender enters the chat! The Steelers are 6-2 and within the midst of getting some actually good soccer from QB Russell Wilson, so why are they hesitant contenders? The primary hesitancy is how sustainable this degree of play from Wilson is. Since getting into the beginning lineup he’s proven the flexibility to generate explosives downfield along with his arm whereas preserving Pittsburgh’s offense on monitor, however I don’t know the way constant each he and the operating recreation shall be. In Wilson’s two video games, they’ve performed two of the worst run defenses within the NFL within the Jets and Giants, and have video games towards each the Ravens and Browns in addition to the Chiefs arising. If they’ll’t constantly generate something on the bottom, it places extra on the shoulders of Wilson, who may not be capable to carry that load like he used to. The protection remains to be good, however the Steelers have all the time fielded protection. If Pittsburgh needs to go additional than the divisional spherical, it’ll have to hold this degree of play from Wilson.

Los Angeles Chargers: Contender

The Chargers are a contender as a result of in a weaker AFC, they’ve two issues that separate groups come playoff time: a protection that is excellent and a QB enjoying at a really excessive degree. Justin Herbert has actually performed some insane soccer during the last 4 video games. Whereas the stats may not present it (throwing to Will Dissly and Simi Fehoko will try this), he’s proven a lot management over this offense and is even doing extra creation out of construction as effectively. So long as Herbert is enjoying effectively, they’ll have a shot in each recreation. Then on the defensive facet, DC Jesse Minter has the Chargers protection firing on all cylinders. They’ve been tremendous spectacular on the again finish, enjoying on a string, whereas up entrance Khalil Mack and Poona Ford flip again the clock up entrance. The younger linebackers are enjoying effectively within the center, and it’s actually introduced the unit collectively as an entire. To not point out, they have already got wins over Denver and Cleveland this season.

I’m not saying we needs to be ready for the Chargers making the playoffs in 12 months 1 underneath Jim Harbaugh, however I’m saying that it wouldn’t shock me.

Atlanta Falcons: Contender

The Atlanta Falcons are contenders as a result of they boast one of the crucial versatile offenses in your entire league. Because the opening season loss to Pittsburgh, Atlanta has a prime 5 offense in EPA per play and is sixth in offensive success price as effectively. QB Kirk Cousins is enjoying at a excessive degree, doing extra true QB’ing from shotgun and in commonplace dropback conditions than he did in Minnesota, and he’s developed a rapport with receivers Drake London and Darnell Mooney. Mix that with among the coolest gamers within the league in RBs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier and also you get an offense that’s cooking up a storm. Plus, they’ve already crushed the Bucs twice and the Saints as soon as, principally locking up the NFC South at this level.

My solely level of concern is a protection that may’t rush the passer constantly, however as a result of they’ve an offense that may put up factors with anybody, I’m in on this staff.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Pretender (hesitantly)

I had a lot religion within the Buccaneers, however I’m simply undecided this staff can get to the playoffs of their present type. Thoughts you, this isn’t actually in regards to the offense. Whereas they’ll nonetheless endure from the Baker Mayfield bozo drive right here and there, the Bucs offense nonetheless has discovered very nice pockets of play with out WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans (Evans is anticipated again after Week 11). Their display screen recreation with all three operating backs is de facto good, and the offensive line is coming collectively effectively.

The Bucs downside is a protection that’s exhibiting increasingly cracks by the day. Regardless of being fourth within the NFL in blitz price, they’re solely sixteenth in strain price per Professional Soccer Reference. They’ll’t actually get house with their pressures, and due to the construction of their protection, meaning a defensive lineman is out in protection, leaving them open to getting carved up. Their again seven has been hit laborious by harm, which doesn’t add to the state of affairs any higher both. If they’ll’t beat the Chiefs on Monday night time, the season has an opportunity of getting worse earlier than it will get any higher.

Picture by Michael Owens/Getty Photographs

Arizona Cardinals: Pretender (hesitantly)

The Cardinals are the one staff within the NFC West above .500. If you happen to had that in your NFL bingo card this season I wish to shake your hand and provide you with an award. The Cardinals are an interesting staff as a result of they’re constructed like they may be extra ready to contend in 2025, however as a result of they’re main the division proper now, why not try to make a run? The offense is a little more high-variance than I would really like them to be, however at their greatest they trigger so many issues due to their potential to play in heavier formations. TE Trey McBride is a budding celebrity in addition to WR Marvin Harrison Jr, and RB James Conner is a deal with breaking machine. Whereas QB Kyler Murray has stretches of inconsistency, he’s an electrical playmaker who’s able to main this offense.

They’re pretenders for now as a result of I nonetheless have points with this protection, and it’s just because they’re too small up entrance. The Cardinals prefer to play with all three safeties on the sphere, however due to how little they’re up entrance, these safeties find yourself getting crushed by groups with a succesful run recreation, like plenty of groups the Cardinals would face within the playoffs. For now, I’m going to say they’re pretenders. However they’re enjoying with home cash at this level, and with a lighter schedule they very effectively may win the division.

Denver Broncos: Pretender

I’m simply undecided if the Broncos can severely make a run to finish the season. Whereas I really like their protection and the way they play when everyone seems to be wholesome, the offense leaves rather a lot to be desired. Clearly, the quarterback spot goes to get plenty of scrutiny, and I believe Nix has had plenty of stretches of poor play, however exterior of Nix I simply don’t actually have plenty of religion on this supporting forged as a playoff staff. Exterior of WR Courtland Sutton, I believe the receiver group wants a bit extra maturation, and so they’re making an attempt to determine their RB rotation as effectively. Possibly they’ll backdoor their manner into the playoffs, however they’ve two video games towards the Chiefs left, in addition to video games towards the Chargers and Bengals on the schedule. I’m hesitant to name them a contender, however subsequent 12 months might be one.

Cincinnati Bengals: Pretender

I’m not doing this with the Bengals once more. I simply can’t. Cincy is 4-5 after throttling the aimless Raiders on Sunday, however I simply don’t suppose that is the 12 months for the Bengals. Whereas Joe Burrow has performed incredible soccer, the protection remains to be reliant on otherworldly Trey Hendrickson performances so as to win constantly on that facet of the ball. They’re one of many worst run defenses in your entire league, which additionally they mix with some actual complicated stretches of play within the secondary. The younger DBs for Cincinnati nonetheless want extra time to develop, however their schedule doesn’t actually afford them a lot time to develop. Can the Bengals’ offense will them simply exterior of the playoff image? Positive, however I don’t suppose they’ll have sufficient to do it this 12 months.

Picture by Rio Giancarlo/Getty Photographs

Seattle Seahawks: Pretender

No Seahawks recreation is ever regular, which makes this season probably the most irregular for Seattle shortly. It was all the time going to take time for the protection to actually gel, however they permit far too many massive performs to be severe on protection proper now. Nonetheless, my problem is with an offense that’s all the time in its’ personal manner up entrance. Their incapacity to do something up entrance is de facto hampering what they’ll run on offense. They’re twenty eighth in Adjusted Line Yards, have given up 28 sacks and proper now can’t even snap a ball accurately. This incapacity to run something up entrance places plenty of strain on QB Geno Smith to be excellent on each cross, and never even he’s resistant to a a number of interception recreation like he had on Sunday. Even regardless of that, the Seahawks will nonetheless discover themselves within the hunt due to Smith and the opposite expertise on the offensive facet of the ball, however I don’t know if the offensive line can do sufficient for them to make it.

Los Angeles Rams: Contender

The Rams did this final 12 months, and that’s largely the rationale why I believe they’ll do it once more. LA has a system for a way they win, which is a ferocious younger cross rush and QB Matthew Stafford catching fireplace for a number of video games. That’s how they beat Seattle on Sunday, and it’s a really efficient technique. So long as Stafford, WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua and RB Kyren Williams play, the Rams’ offense is such an especially tough staff to defend. Stafford may be placing collectively a few of his greatest play in latest weeks, and so long as they’ll get that from him the Rams are going to problem for the playoffs. If the cross rush, led by sensational rookie EDGE Jared Verse, can proceed to be superb, this Rams staff could make the playoffs.