NBA Playoffs groups ranked by their 2025 championship probabilities

The 2025 NBA Playoffs are right here with three huge favorites and a pool of contenders able to play the spoiler. The Boston Celtics are attempting to develop into the league’s first back-to-back champion for the reason that 2017-2018 Golden State Warriors. Boston ran over the league on their solution to a championship final yr, however the path received’t be really easy this season.

The Cleveland Cavaliers earned the No. 1 seed within the East with a surprising 64-win season powered by their ‘core 4’ of Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, and Jarrett Allen. The Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder had been even higher because the leaders of the West, with a 68-win common season that noticed the staff put up the second-best net-rating in league historical past behind Michael Jordan’s 1996 Chicago Bulls.

The Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors each dream of getting within the championship combine out West. Can an Japanese Convention staff pull off an upset to make the convention finals? Right here’s how we’d rank each staff within the 2025 NBA Playoffs by their championship probabilities.

Word: this was revealed earlier than the No. 8 seeds had been decided in every convention.

14. Orlando Magic

The Magic have an unimaginable basis with Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, and an elite protection that ranked No. 2 within the NBA this season. They simply aren’t a critical staff but as a result of this may be the worst three-point taking pictures staff in league historical past relative to period. The Magic’s 31.8 % mark from three-point vary was dead-last within the league by a mile, and is very repugnant for a staff with two elite playmaking forwards. Orlando additionally did a poor job of optimizing Banchero’s touches, making an clearly proficient participant one of many least environment friendly high-volume scorers within the league. The Magic nonetheless have a number of potential for the long run, however they may actually use a commerce or two and a few sensible free agent signings this summer season.

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13. Detroit Pistons

The Detroit Pistons are the feel-good story of the season after rising from an limitless rebuild to match their highest win complete (44 wins) since their 2008 heyday. The Pistons loaded up on shooters through the offseason, and it allowed Cade Cunningham lastly begin taking part in like a No. 1 total choose. Cunningham’s sensational mix of scoring and playmaking will seemingly earn him an All-NBA nod, however it was potential as a result of Malik Beasley, Tim Hardaway Jr. spaced the ground for him. New head coach JB Bickerstaff deserves a ton of credit score throughout, however particularly for serving to the protection bounce from No. 26 to No. 11 with fewer roster enhancements by way of defensive personnel. Tobias Harris deserves some credit score too for being the steadying veteran he was signed to be. The Pistons made the sixth-biggest win complete enchancment in league historical past this yr, and so they have a good shot towards the New York Knicks within the first spherical. No matter their playoff efficiency, this season has already been an enormous success.

12. Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have been cursed by horrible damage luck within the playoffs ever since profitable the 2021 NBA championship, and it’s occurred once more with Damian Lillard’s blood clot. Lillard has been out for a month after medical doctors found a blood clot in his calf, and whereas there’s some optimism he may return for the playoffs, nobody is aware of for certain. Milwaukee can have an opportunity both approach as a result of they will declare to having one of the best participant within the Japanese Convention. Giannis Antetokounmpo had one other monster season of 30+ factors, 12 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per sport with nice protection. Now 30 years outdated, Antetokounmpo has missed some or all of Milwaukee’s final two playoff runs, and must put the staff on his again to get previous the Pacers within the first spherical. The remainder of the Bucks are a bit of shaky with out Lillard: Taurean Prince, Gary Trent Jr., and AJ Inexperienced must splash threes, Kyle Kuzma must keep away from self-sabotage, and Brook Lopez should proceed to carry up brilliantly at each ends of the ground. The chips are stacked towards the Bucks once more enter the playoffs, however with Giannis, something is feasible.

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11. Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves matched their finest playoff run ever final yr with a Western Convention Finals look, however issues had been at all times going to be a bit of bizarre this yr after they traded Karl-Anthony Cities a day earlier than coaching camp. Minnesota spent most of this season in play-in vary, however their killer run after the All-Star break elevated them into the No. 6 seed. The Wolves have dropped from No. 1 to No. 6 in protection this yr, however it’s nonetheless a staff that could be a main ache to play towards with Rudy Gobert defending the rim and Jaden McDaniels, Anthony Edwards, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker on the level of assault. Edwards has revamped to shot-diet to steer the NBA each three-point makes an attempt and three-point makes, however he stays at his most harmful driving downhill. Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo — the returning items from the KAT commerce — took a bit of bit to seek out their stride, however have every been taking part in higher as of late. Minnesota is larger and a bit of extra athletic than the Lakers of their first spherical matchup, however LA is taken into account a decisive favourite. It’s on Edwards to placed on his Superman cape and drag this staff to a different playoff run. It hasn’t at all times seemed fairly for the Wolves this season, however it’s coming collectively late.

10. Indiana Pacers

The Pacers made a shock run to the convention finals a yr in the past after buying Pascal Siakam at mid-season. This yr, the total impact of the Siakam commerce got here into focus, as Indiana confirmed quite a bit higher stability from their all-offense/no-defense strategy beforehand. The Pacers nonetheless completed No. 9 in offense this yr with Siakam placing collectively a robust total scoring season, and Tyrese Haliburton catching fireplace late. The protection completed within the prime half of the league too, with Myles Turner nonetheless efficient as a rim protector whereas Siakam and Aaron Nesmith may battle larger scorers. Probably the most encouraging signal for Indiana is that Haliburton seems to be again to one of the best model of himself these days. He’s not more likely to be one of the best participant in a collection with the Bucks, however Haliburton’s high-octane playmaking and pull-up taking pictures is what makes the Pacers a pest to take care of. If he’s on, one other Cinderella run isn’t inconceivable.

Photograph by Jason Miller/Getty Photographs

9. New York Knicks

The Knicks altered the material of their roster by swinging a blockbuster commerce for Karl-Anthony Cities a day earlier than coaching camp opened. Cities’ first yr has been every little thing the Knicks may have moderately anticipated: unbelievable offensive manufacturing anchored by elite outdoors taking pictures, with extraordinarily shaky inside protection. New York is betting that Jalen Brunson’s two-man sport with KAT can carry the offense (the Knicks completed No. 5 in offensive effectivity) whereas OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Hart lock down on protection. It sounds good in idea, however there are a pair points: the Knicks’ starters every ranked within the top-25 of minutes per sport this season, with Bridges taking part in extra minutes than anybody since 2016 James Harden. The depth of this roster simply isn’t good, and it reveals up offensively when Brunson goes to the bench. It’s additionally simply laborious to construct a nice protection with a shaky rim protector like Cities, and one other minus defender in Brunson in each lineup. This has been a profitable first yr for the Knicks’ all-in period, however this staff wants a number of extra tweaks earlier than it’s really a championship contender.

8. Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers time as a contender appeared destined to finish after they misplaced Paul George in free company for nothing coming off an All-NBA season over the summer season. It seems it was one of the best factor that might ever occur to them. As George launched into a misplaced yr in Philadelphia, the Clippers rebuilt their staff across the James Harden-Ivica Zubac pick-and-roll and spent their accessible cap house on defenders. Kawhi Leonard has been recovering slowly however absolutely alongside the way in which, and it beginning to seem like the nearer this staff wants over the previous few weeks. Leonard hasn’t completed a playoff run wholesome since 2020 contained in the bubble. Betting on Harden within the playoffs is a equally doomed proposition historically-speaking. With Norm Powell having a profession yr and sufficient defensive size across the scorers, there’s a pathway to speaking yourselves into the Clippers making a deep run. The hypotheticals are simply barely too huge for my liking.

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7. Houston Rockets

The Rockets have gotten top-of-the-line examples of the right way to pull off a contemporary NBA rebuild, going from the dregs of the post-James Harden period to the No. 2 seed within the West in simply two years. Head coach Ime Udoka deserves a lot of the credit score for turning Houston into a troublesome, bodily staff that completed because the league’s runaway chief in offensive rebound charge in addition to No. 5 in defensive effectivity. The Rockets don’t have a star creator within the halfcourt which might result in some ugly offensive possessions. Can you actually win with protection and offensive rebounding within the playoffs? The highlight might be on 22-year-old Turkish middle Alperen Sengun to point out the total extent of his All-Star leap this season. Sengun’s inside scoring and playmaking is the Rockets’ finest wager when the sport settles down, however Houston’s lack of taking pictures means he’ll be seeing additional limbs on each contact. Amen Thompson additionally has the prospect for a popping out occasion after a breakout sophomore season. Thompson is one of the best pure athlete within the NBA, and he’ll be tasked with guarding Stephen Curry whereas contributing on offense. The Rockets are younger and don’t have a real star, however their overwhelming depth and athleticism may nonetheless play properly within the postseason.

6. Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokic refused to let the Nuggets crumble this yr. The 30-year-old middle minted his standing as one of the best participant on the earth with a season for the ages, ending top-3 within the NBA in scoring, assists, rebounds, and steals whereas taking pictures practically 42 % from three-point vary. Jokic did every little thing for Denver, however the truth that he needed to shoulder a lot duty solely two years after profitable a championship is troubling. Firing head coach Mike Malone and GM Calvin Sales space days earlier than the playoffs reveals how poisonous the state of affairs in Denver has been. Jokic dragged his staff to 50 wins, however he’ll need assistance if the Nuggets wish to go on one other lengthy playoff run. Jamal Murray is the largest X-Issue within the playoffs. The 28-year-old broke down in final yr’s playoffs, however has been taking part in higher these days after a gradual begin to this yr. Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. additionally want signature playoff runs, whereas children like Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, and Jalen Pickett get an enormous alternative to show themselves. The Russell Westbrook issue can also be lurking right here. He’s had a stable season, however it appears like catastrophe is at all times ready across the nook. The Nuggets have one of the best participant in any collection, and that’s an infinite benefit. If Jokic can lead this staff on one other deep run, will probably be one of many biggest accomplishments of his profession.

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5. Golden State Warriors

The Warriors seemed poised to expire the clock on the Stephen Curry period till a miraculous commerce deadline deal fell into their lap. Golden State has been reborn with Jimmy Butler in tow, giving them one other ferocious defender in addition to somebody who can put strain on the rim and free throw line. Butler’s presence has allowed Stephen Curry extra freedom to work his magic off the ball, and even at age-37 he’s nonetheless able to taking up a playoff collection. The Warriors nonetheless have loads of questions: How ought to the middle rotation play out? Does Jonathan Kuminga have any position on this staff? Can Butler once more rise to the event as a scorer within the playoffs? All Curry may ask for is an opportunity, and it appears like he has it this yr. The Rockets can overwhelm Golden State with athleticism and youth, however one aspect has No. 30 and the opposite doesn’t. Rockets followers know that in addition to anybody over time. It’s straightforward to write down off the Warriors as too small or too outdated, however this staff simply works with Butler if he continues to succeed in peak kind the playoffs. The Warriors are removed from a favourite this time round, however there’s actual hope for one more playoff run, and typically that’s all you want when you could have Stephen Curry.

4. Los Angeles Lakers

The 2024-25 NBA season will at all times be remembered because the yr the Lakers lucked into buying and selling for Luka Doncic. The deal has paid rapid dividends regardless of it leaving the Lakers with out a starting-caliber huge man, and with Doncic recovering from the longest damage of his profession. Doncic is a confirmed playoff killer, and LeBron James is an unimaginable co-star even at 40 years outdated. Austin Reaves provides the Lakers a bonafide third scorer who can takeover any sport. The Lakers lack a star middle, however they’re not precisely small, with strong-and-long gamers at virtually each different place. Head coach JJ Redick has proven a powerful capability to regulate to matchups in his first season, and he’ll have to determine a solution to decrease the roster shortcomings. The Lakers additionally bought an encouraging draw, avoiding the Thunder till a possible Western Convention Finals collection. Even with their flaws, LA has proven sufficient offensive firepower and defensive ingenuity for an actual run. Mavericks followers will undergo each step of the way in which.

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3. Cleveland Cavaliers

It was affordable to count on the Cavs to take one other step ahead with new head coach Kenny Atkinson this yr after accidents like Darius Garland’s damaged jaw handcuffed the roster final yr. Nobody thought Cleveland would leap to 64 wins and legit championship competition standing, although. The Cavs had been a wagon all yr, with two 6-foot All-Stars guards main the offense and a pair of 7-footers anchoring the protection. The Cavs had the No. 1 offense within the league, with a terrifying mix of three-point taking pictures and ball motion routing opponents all yr. Donovan Mitchell deserves credit score for taking a small step again in duty as Garland roared again to All-Star kind. Evan Mobley’s All-NBA bounce was one of many season’s largest developments, and Jarrett Allen was as regular as ever taking pictures 70 % on the rim and offering stable protection inside. The Cavs’ depth was an enormous asset all yr too, and gamers like Ty Jerome and Max Strus might want to keep scorching within the playoffs. Having two small guards is at all times a possible postseason pitfall, however Cleveland is betting they will get groups into the blender earlier than the mismatch looking takes maintain. The Cavs are already a tremendous story. They’ve an actual probability to write down an ideal ending because the playoffs start.

2. Boston Celtics

The Celtics dominated the playoffs final yr on the way in which to some of the convincing championship runs in latest reminiscence, however there’s no denying that they confronted a straightforward path to get there. Boston has seemed like a front-runner to go back-to-back from the very begin of the season, and it completed the yr No. 2 in offense and No. 4 in protection. Jayson Tatum is poised for his fourth straight First-Crew All-NBA choice, and stays the steadying two-way power each nice staff wants. Jaylen Brown’s cumbersome knee presents a possible downside for Boston, however don’t neglect this staff coasted to a championship with out Kristaps Porzingis for a lot of the playoffs final yr. If Porzingis can keep wholesome and productive, and if Al Horford can fend off age-related decline for a number of extra months, the Celtics have sufficient firepower to go back-to-back even when Brown isn’t in prime form. The Celtics nonetheless take and extra extra threes than anybody, and there’s no solution to defend them in a lot house when the pictures are falling. With zero weak hyperlinks to assault defensively, pristine spacing, and an excellent head coach, Boston has the components to be the NBA’s first repeat champion in seven years.

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1. Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder

It’s laborious to imagine how dominant the Thunder had been this season when you think about that Chet Holmgren, who appeared destined for an All-NBA nod this yr, solely performed 32 video games due to a pelvic damage. Properly, OKC nonetheless went 42-8 with out their second-best participant, exhibiting off the embarrassment of riches that’s the envy of the NBA. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the seemingly MVP, and he’s totally claimed the title of one of the best guard in basketball. The Thunder received SGA’s minutes by an absurd +918 factors this season, with the guard’s unstoppable mixture of rim attacking, mid-range pull-ups, and foul drawing pacing their ascendancy. With Holmgren now again, Oklahoma Metropolis has been experimenting with two huge lineups alongside Isaiah Hartenstein. The pairing has solved the staff’s rebounding points from final yr, however opens up some new issues with much less velocity and fewer taking pictures on the ground. Up to now, the Thunder have been profitable with protection, forcing turnovers at a historic charge which have led to so many straightforward buckets the opposite approach. Can OKC preserve turning groups over when the sport slows down within the playoffs? Is Jalen Williams able to take a playoff leap as a secondary halfcourt creator if they will’t? There’s purpose to be skeptical of the Thunder till they totally breakthrough, however this staff is about up for championships now and properly into the long run. This may very well be the beginning of one thing particular for OKC.