OPINION — In 2016, I sat throughout the desk from China’s Director of Operations for the Ministry of State Safety (MSS). Their go to to Kabul was tightly scripted, talking solely from ready paperwork, with translators available, and by no means deviating from the road. The assembly was a part of a broader intelligence dialogue between the MSS and Afghanistan’s Nationwide Directorate of Safety (NDS), which I led on the time.
Their concern was targeted and unyielding: the presence of Uyghur militants affiliated with the East Turkestan Islamic Motion (ETIM) in Afghanistan. Whereas our engagement was primarily with the Ministry of State Safety (MSS)—China’s civilian intelligence service—it’s necessary to notice that different Chinese language intelligence parts have been additionally current and lively in Afghanistan. These included PLA army intelligence officers (beforehand referred to as 2PLA), working below diplomatic cowl and conducting parallel HUMINT efforts.
That engagement was only one instance of how China quietly however assertively embeds intelligence affect in creating nations. Whereas Beijing’s actions could also be framed as counterterrorism cooperation or financial engagement, the deeper sample reveals a calculated grey zone technique—working under the edge of open battle by way of long-term penetration and affect—which deserves shut scrutiny as U.S.-China competitors escalates globally.
From Economics to Intelligence in Afghanistan
Within the 2000s, China’s Afghan presence was commercially pushed. The $3 billion Mes Aynak copper mine contract mirrored its resource-focused technique. Intelligence assortment remained passive, primarily routed by way of industrial and diplomatic channels.
However after 2014, Beijing’s calculus shifted. The emergence of ISIS and the rising presence of Uyghur militants in northeastern Afghanistan—notably Badakhshan Province, which borders China’s Xinjiang area—prompted MSS to take extra direct motion. China feared that ETIM fighters fleeing battle zones, usually by way of Turkey, have been regrouping close to its border.
Chinese language intelligence officers, together with these from the MSS and the PLA’s army intelligence, expanded its footprint contained in the Chinese language Embassy in Kabul and commenced focusing on native Afghan influencers—particularly Members of Parliament from affected provinces. These officers have been invited to “holidays” in China, the place they have been supplied money, hosted with care, and requested to share intelligence about their areas. Their family have been supplied scholarships and Chinese language-language training. MSS leveraged these officers to focus on provincial governors, police commanders, and neighborhood leaders for additional affect.
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Participating the NDS: A Partnership with Limits
Ultimately, MSS sought formal engagement with the Afghan intelligence neighborhood. Initially cautious because of our shut relationships with the CIA and different Western businesses, the Chinese language approached each the Workplace of the President and senior NDS officers. Excessive-ranking Chinese language delegations, together with Politburo members and MSS deputy administrators, visited Kabul and opened dialogue.
Their main curiosity was not in Afghanistan’s broader stability or democracy—it was in neutralizing ETIM.
In 2016, we established a joint counterterrorism unit: eight MSS officers working alongside a dozen Afghan case officers and analysts. Whereas the collaboration was framed as mutual, Chinese language officers have been assertive and fixated. They’d repeatedly push intelligence companions to give attention to particular targets, usually elevating the identical names in conferences with senior Afghan and even U.S. officers.
MSS supplied technical help to NDS, notably in alerts intelligence (SIGINT), which comprised 80% of our uncooked intelligence. Whereas this help got here by way of MSS channels, it’s seemingly that PLA cyber and alerts models—beforehand referred to as 3PLA and now a part of the PLA’s Data Assist Drive—have been additionally concerned behind the scenes or in an advising capability. Our evaluation discovered MSS prioritized studying NDS’s capabilities over enhancing them. We rejected affords of apparatus and delicate technical assist and stored our digital infrastructure tightly compartmentalized.
China’s intelligence structure is multilayered. Along with the Ministry of State Safety (MSS), businesses such because the Folks’s Liberation Military (PLA) Intelligence Bureau of the Joint Employees Division (previously referred to as 2PLA), the PLA’s Our on-line world Drive and Data Assist Drive (previously 3PLA), and the Political Work Division of the Central Army Fee (beforehand the Normal Political Division Liaison Workplace, or GPDLO) every conduct abroad intelligence, HUMINT, and affect operations—usually below diplomatic, journalistic, or industrial cowl. This complexity usually goes unnoticed however is central to understanding China’s grey zone actions.
China’s Strategic Apathy Towards the Republic
Not like lots of Afghanistan’s companions, China demonstrated little interest in preserving the Afghan Republic. Because the U.S.-Taliban peace talks superior and President Biden’s withdrawal plan crystallized, MSS confirmed no concern for institutional continuity. As a substitute, they accelerated covert outreach to Taliban factions—replicating their northeast technique of help, relationship-building, and focused intelligence requests.
Chinese language intelligence providers continued to give attention to ETIM. Whereas the MSS was the first interlocutor, different entities reportedly offered technical coaching and surveillance help to the Taliban’s Normal Directorate of Intelligence (GDI). Following the Taliban’s takeover, former Afghan SIGINT officers reported observing Chinese language technicians inspecting GDI’s alerts intelligence infrastructure—elevating considerations about potential Chinese language entry to post-Republic programs. This rising alignment now extends past Kabul into Afghanistan’s strategic peripheries.
In Badakhshan province Chinese language firms are working mining initiatives in districts equivalent to Shignan, Shahre Bozorg, Raghha, and Yaftal Payen. Offered as financial improvement, these initiatives let Chinese language intelligence surveil border zones and observe Uyghur militants. The mining operations seemingly serve twin functions: useful resource extraction and the embedding of ahead intelligence belongings below the quilt of economic engagement.
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Past Afghanistan: A World Grey Zone Sample
Afghanistan is much from an outlier. China’s intelligence and affect playbook extends broadly throughout the creating world, leveraging financial presence as a key software for long-term strategic penetration in what can greatest be described as grey zone competitors.
Pakistan affords a essential case examine. Having lived there as a refugee from 1988 to 2001, I witnessed firsthand how China developed from an financial accomplice to a deep intelligence and protection collaborator. All through the Eighties and Nineties, China steadily deepened its position in Pakistani infrastructure, protection, and nuclear improvement—considerably strengthening Islamabad’s strategic posture towards India. This relationship has since matured into a sturdy intelligence and army alliance.
Chinese language applied sciences, together with surveillance platforms and drones, have reportedly been deployed in latest Indo-Pakistani confrontations—marking their first use in dwell regional battle. In the meantime, Pakistan’s heavy dependence on Chinese language funding by way of the China-Pakistan Financial Hall (CPEC) has facilitated deeper Chinese language Intelligence entrenchment, disguised as safety cooperation.
This sample extends past Asia. In Africa, Huawei’s surveillance programs in nations like Uganda allow Chinese language intelligence entry, whereas in Latin America, Peru’s Chancay port conceals Chinese language intelligence operations, very like Afghanistan’s mining initiatives. Investments usually conceal surveillance and intelligence. This covert encroachment threatens state sovereignty, undermines alliances, and calls for a complete U.S.-led response to counter China’s grey zone technique.
Strategic Classes for america
China’s engagement with creating nations just isn’t at all times adversarial. In some instances, its presence has contributed to regional boards, infrastructure improvement, and even safety coordination. However it’s additionally rigorously calculated. Chinese language intelligence businesses don’t function randomly—they aim areas of strategic concern, construct long-term leverage, and prioritize affect over ideology.
The US ought to keep away from dismissing these efforts as mere financial opportunism. When the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan, it left behind a vacuum that China shortly stuffed—not solely by way of industrial exercise, however by embedding Chinese language intelligence affect inside Taliban intelligence.
This sample just isn’t distinctive to Afghanistan. Primarily based on firsthand expertise with how China operates covertly below the banner of financial engagement, it’s extremely seemingly that related affect operations are unfolding in different nations the place Chinese language funding and improvement initiatives are increasing. The U.S. should take a extra proactive strategy—scrutinizing Chinese language actions past simply commerce and tariffs—and develop a clearer understanding of how China embeds intelligence and affect networks in fragile or strategically important nations.
America nonetheless has leverage. A whole bunch of hundreds of Afghans have been educated by way of U.S. army, instructional, and governance packages. This younger diaspora represents a future democratic drive. Slightly than cede the bottom, Washington ought to help the formation of a reputable Afghan opposition—one which displays the need of the Afghan folks and preserves their connections to the democratic world.
China’s intelligence providers have mastered the artwork of quiet affect. What begins as financial cooperation evolves into deep-rooted intelligence presence—usually with out the host nation absolutely realizing the shift. In Afghanistan and past, Chinese language intelligence has efficiently positioned itself to safe Beijing’s pursuits whereas eroding U.S. affect.
Understanding—and countering—this technique requires not simply vigilance, however a long-term funding in allies, civil society, and the knowledge area within the creating world.
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