4 the explanation why we may be overreacting to no Cinderella groups advancing to the Candy 16.
Yearly there’s a storyline that develops from the primary week of the NCAA match that dominates the nationwide sports activities dialog for these three days that separate the second spherical and the Candy 16. Usually, play resumes on Thursday, the main target returns to the court docket, and the “large story” from the week earlier than morphs into limitless discussions concerning the Last 4 earlier than it disappears perpetually.
This 12 months’s first week large story might have a bit longer of a shelf-life.
The subject, after all, is NIL and the switch portal eliminating Cinderella groups from the dance, and the ensuing query of whether or not or not she’s ever going to return.
Contemplating the outcomes of the primary week, the dialog was unavoidable.
Not solely did energy convention chalk reign supreme through the match’s opening week, however it do at a historic degree.
Each prime 4 seed superior out of the match’s first spherical for the primary time since 2017 and simply the fourth time within the fashionable period of the occasion. The common margin of victory within the spherical of 64 was the very best of all-time.
The insanity solely bought extra predictable within the second spherical, with zero groups seeded greater than tenth advancing to the match’s second weekend for the primary time since 2007. Energy convention groups symbolize the whole thing of the Candy 16 for the primary time ever, and a report low of solely 4 whole conferences (the 4 strongest) are represented within the second weekend. The earlier low was seven conferences.
The Massive Ten received its first 10 video games of the match. No convention had ever completed that earlier than. The SEC despatched seven groups to the Candy 16. No convention had ever completed that earlier than.
Put merely, the haves of the game have dominated this 12 months’s match at ranges beforehand not seen.
The straightforward conclusion from all of that is additionally the best: Two conferences have extra money than any two conferences have had within the historical past of school sports activities. The monetary hole between the facility conferences and the mid/low main conferences has by no means been this large. And the brand new switch and NIL guidelines open the door for the faculties with all the cash to have one of the best gamers, one of the best coaches and one of the best all the things else on an annual foundation.
TLDR: The Cinderella is already lifeless. The 2025 match is simply the primary time everybody might see the corpse.
The concept that a number of SEC vs. Massive Ten regional semifinals and the closest factor to a Cinderella being a bunch of former 5-stars coached by John Calipari goes to be the brand new regular in school basketball might wind up being fully correct. However let’s have a look at the the explanation why perhaps that is an overreaction.
Cause 1: It’s one 12 months
Certain, the portal and NIL have grown more and more extra necessary since their inception, however it’s not like they weren’t across the earlier two years.
We’re slightly below 24 months faraway from watching a Fifth-seeded San Diego State crew from the Mountain West and a Ninth-seeded Florida Atlantic crew from Convention USA battling it out within the Last 4. That match additionally noticed the second 16 over 1 upset within the match’s historical past, Furman stun Virginia on the buzzer within the first spherical, and 15-seed Princeton crash the Candy 16.
A 12 months later, we had Yale, Grand Canyon, James Madison and Oakland pull first spherical stunners. Three of these 4 coming towards energy convention opponents.
Perhaps we have to look forward to proof past a single match to attract any sweeping conclusions about the way forward for March Insanity on this new period.
Cause 2: It’s as a lot about convention consolidation as the rest
Quite a bit has been fabricated from simply 4 conferences being represented within the match’s second weekend. That’s comprehensible. The truth that the earlier report low was seven is jarring.
It’s additionally necessary to notice that simply 4 conferences being represented can be at the very least partially as a result of most up-to-date serving to of convention realignment.
Two years in the past, BYU was a member of the West Coast Convention. Two years in the past, Houston was a member of the American Athletic Convention.
Each these packages, significantly Houston, had been doing fairly properly of their previous houses.
Cause 3: One shot, one inch, one name can change a complete narrative
The “Cinderella is lifeless” speaking factors beforehand laid out scream fairly loudly.
Nonetheless, think about a world the place Maryland’s Derik Queen’s final second shot is 5 inches greater and it clangs off the rim as a substitute superbly banking via the web (or … and don’t throw something at me right here … he’s referred to as for touring). On this very life like world, Colorado State’s presence instantly eviscerates the “no crew seeded worse than tenth” and “no crew from a non-power convention” speaking factors.
It’s nonetheless a chalky match, little doubt, however the “we’ve seen the tip of main upsets on this occasion” speaking level loses somewhat steam.
Cause 4: This isn’t fairly as irregular as everyone seems to be making it out to be
While you hear “first match and not using a mid-major crew within the Candy 16 in a billion years,” certain, it’s an consideration grabber.
While you look somewhat bit nearer and see that the one “mid-major” within the second weekends of the 2016 and 2017 tournaments was Gonzaga, and that the one “mid-majors” within the second weekend of the 2019 match had been the Zags and Houston, properly, it resonates a bit much less.
The large guys are dominating the second weekend this 12 months, however the large guys have dominated the second weekend in most years.
One last item, simply because we didn’t have a 13 via 16 seed advance this 12 months doesn’t imply that the little guys struck out fully. This match nonetheless noticed two groups from the Mountain West advance in the identical 12 months for the primary time since 2010, it noticed McNeese State from the Southland topple Clemson from the ACC, and it noticed the Missouri Valley’s Drake Bulldogs take down Missouri from the large, dangerous SEC.
Some years the insanity is just a bit extra sane than others.
Is Cinderella really lifeless? Perhaps. There’s definitely proof to assist the assumption. However that proof is basically rooted within the outcomes of 4 days of basketball.
Perhaps she’s simply taking a breather.