Canadian examine allow approvals are on observe to fall by 45% in 2024, quite than the 35% deliberate discount of final yr’s controversial worldwide pupil caps, new IRCC knowledge analysed by ApplyBoard has revealed.
“The caps’ affect was considerably underestimated,” ApplyBoard founder Meti Basiri informed The PIE Information. “Quickly launched coverage adjustments created confusion and had an immense affect on pupil sentiment and institutional operations.
“Whereas aiming to handle pupil numbers, these adjustments did not account for the views of scholars, and their significance to Canada’s future financial system and communities,” he continued.
The report reveals the far-reaching affect of Canada’s examine allow caps, which had been introduced in January 2024 and adopted by a tumultuous yr of coverage adjustments that expanded restrictions and set new guidelines for post-graduate work allow eligibility, amongst different adjustments.
For the primary 10 months of 2024, Canada’s examine allow approval charge hovered simply above 50%, leading to an estimated most of 280,000 approvals from Ok-12 to postgraduate ranges. This represents the bottom variety of approvals in a non-pandemic yr since 2019.
“Even from the early days of the caps, decreased pupil curiosity outpaced authorities estimates,” famous the report, with stakeholders highlighting the reputational injury to Canada as a examine vacation spot.
“Approvals for capped applications fell by 60%, however even cap-exempt applications declined by 27%. Main supply international locations like India, Nigeria, and Nepal noticed over 50% declines, exhibiting how insurance policies have disrupted demand throughout all examine ranges,” stated Basiri.
Following main PGWP and examine allow adjustments introduced by the IRCC in September 2024, 4 out of 5 worldwide pupil counsellors surveyed by ApplyBoard agreed that Canada’s caps had made it a much less fascinating examine vacation spot.
Although stakeholders throughout Canada recognised the necessity to deal with fraud and pupil housing points, many had urged the federal authorities to attend till the affect of the preliminary caps was clear earlier than going forward with seemingly countless coverage adjustments.
On the CBIE convention in November 2024, immigration minister Marc Miller stated he “profoundly disagreed” with the prevailing sector view that the caps and subsequent PGWP and everlasting residency restrictions had been an “overcorrection”.
Put up-secondary applications, which had been the first focus of the 2024 caps, had been hit hardest by the restrictions, with new worldwide enrolments at schools estimated to have dropped by 60% because of the insurance policies.
Whereas Canada’s largest supply locations noticed main declines, the caps weren’t felt evenly throughout sending international locations. Senegal, Guinea and Vietnam maintained year-over-year progress, signalling potential sources of variety for Canada’s cap period.
The report additionally highlighted Ghana’s potential as a supply vacation spot, the place approval scores – although declining from final yr – stay 175% larger than figures from 2022.
Quickly launched coverage adjustments created confusion and had an immense affect on pupil sentiment
Meti Basiri, ApplyBoard
The numerous drop in examine allow approvals was felt throughout all provinces, however Ontario – which accounted for over half of all examine allow approvals in 2023 – and Nova Scotia have seen the most important affect, falling by 55% and 54.5% respectively.
Notably, the variety of examine permits processed by the IRCC dropped by a projected 35% in 2024, according to the federal government’s targets, however approval charges haven’t stored tempo.
When setting final yr’s targets, minister Miller solely had the ability to restrict the variety of functions processed by the IRCC, not the variety of examine permits which are permitted.
The preliminary goal of 360,000 permitted examine permits was based mostly on an estimated approval charge of 60%, leading to a 605,000 cap on the variety of functions processed.
Following new insurance policies such because the inclusion of postgraduate applications within the 2025 cap, Basiri stated he anticipated that examine allow approvals would stay under pre-cap ranges.
“Whereas total pupil numbers could align with IRCC’s targets, the broader affect on institutional readiness and Canada’s repute can be key areas to observe in 2025,” he added.
