In 1992, voters despatched a document variety of girls to Congress, main the media and political scientists to name it the “12 months of the Girl.”
When the ultimate votes are counted within the 2024 election, we’d have a brand new means of referring to the 2024 election: The 12 months of the Man.
President-elect Donald Trump gained males by 10 factors this yr, in response to early exit polls, a consequence that might change as soon as the ultimate votes are tallied. Vice President Kamala Harris, in the meantime, appeared to win girls by 10 factors — but when the exit polls are right, she misplaced floor with girls in comparison with Joe Biden’s 2020 outcomes. The exit polls additionally recommend a rightward shift for Latino males. In marshaling males’s votes, and holding on to a slim majority of white girls, Trump was in a position to overcome his weaknesses with the broader swath of feminine voters and construct a dominant lead, permitting him to decisively seize the presidency.
Exit polls are notoriously unreliable, and it’ll possible be days earlier than we’ve got a transparent sense of how Trump gained. However there’s no denying that Trump tailor-made his marketing campaign to attraction to males. Trump spent the months main as much as Election Day partaking in intense outreach to male voters, showing on podcasts and doing interviews with influential media figures like Joe Rogan, Logan Paul, and Theo Von. He portrayed himself as a robust chief able to restoring the nation’s misplaced glory — returning it, in different phrases, to a time when males have been undisputedly on the prime of the social hierarchy. After a person tried to assassinate the previous president at a rally this summer time in Pennsylvania, Trump stood defiantly with blood on his face and his fist raised within the air, projecting an air of power that was praised as iconic. All through the marketing campaign, Trump demonstrated the aggressiveness that has outlined his life within the public enviornment, relentlessly attacking his Democratic opposition, the media, and anybody he deemed insufficiently supportive.
Trump particularly sought to get younger males of all races and males with out a faculty training to the polls. It was a dangerous technique as a result of the voters Trump was searching for have traditionally been among the many most tough to mobilize. However in interesting to them, Trump hoped to tug off one other win much like that of 2016, when he gained males by 11 factors. In 2020, Biden was in a position to defeat Trump partly by erasing his giant benefit with male voters. This yr, it appears, Trump gained males again.
There are various the explanation why male voters have been dissatisfied lately and may need been receptive to his messaging. Inflation has made the price of dwelling painful for hundreds of thousands of individuals post-pandemic. Males are falling behind girls in training. Their wages are stagnating or declining as girls’s wages develop, and fewer males are working. They’re fighting an epidemic of loneliness that doesn’t appear to be affecting girls in an analogous method. Feminism has gone mainstream, making some males really feel like they aren’t as valued.
What classes ought to girls take from this election? The polls main as much as the election confirmed a large gender hole, with girls preferring Harris by double digits and males preferring Trump by the identical. Since 1980, feminine voters have most well-liked Democrats, and on the whole, they’ve registered and voted in larger numbers than males.
Trump’s struggles with girls have been largely of his personal creation. As a candidate in 2016, a number of girls accused him of sexual assault, and he was caught on tape bragging about sexual assault. It wasn’t sufficient to dissuade voters from electing him. As president, he appointed the Supreme Court docket justices who helped overturn federally protected abortion rights. Now, there are abortion bans in additional than 20 states, together with some that don’t make an exception for victims of rape and incest. Final yr, Trump was discovered legally liable for rape. He has repeatedly criticized girls he doesn’t like, together with Harris and Rep. Nancy Pelosi, in crude, sexist, and vulgar phrases. Within the days main as much as the election, recordings of the convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein calling Trump his closest buddy grew to become public.
None of it was sufficient to persuade voters to not give him one other shot at an important job within the nation. Plainly his profitable coalition included white girls, a majority of whom voted for him in 2024, in response to exit polls, simply as they did 4 years in the past.
For a really actual second, it appeared as if feminine voters, as a broader, multiracial group, would possibly assist ship a Democrat to the White Home, like they did in 2020.
Ultimately, it wasn’t sufficient. American voters have now twice chosen Trump over eminently certified girls.
The final time Trump gained, girls took to the streets in a historic protest. Within the subsequent election cycle, america elected extra girls to Congress than ever earlier than. That helped pave the best way for a brand new technology of girls leaders, together with the six girls who ran for president as Democrats in 2020. It’s potential that may occur once more.
Finally, it’ll take a number of extra days to tally the ultimate votes, and determine what they imply. However one conclusion appears apparent. Donald Trump ran a marketing campaign geared towards dissatisfied males. It labored.
