With simply days till the 2024 presidential election, there’s nonetheless numerous uncertainty. However Vox is right here that will help you navigate via it.
Final week, we requested to your lingering questions concerning the upcoming election. We then turned to senior correspondent Eric Levitz and senior politics reporter Christian Paz to reply 9 of them. Right here’s what they needed to say:
The polls make it seem to be there’s going to be numerous split-ticket voting this yr. How widespread is that traditionally, and would the dimensions indicated by polling be unusually excessive this yr, or is it fairly commonplace?
Break up-ticket voting — when a voter chooses candidates from one occasion for a statewide or nationwide race and one other occasion for different down-ballot contests — has been on the decline over the previous few a long time due to polarization. As much as 2020, ticket-splitting was getting rarer — however then we noticed surprisingly excessive ranges of it in 2022, with voters selecting in a different way between governor and Senate candidates, or between these statewide races and native down-ballot races.
This yr, if polls are to be believed, we’d see extra of it in particular swing states, like in Arizona and North Carolina. In North Carolina, ticket-splitting is extra of a norm — they’ve a historical past of electing Republican presidents however Democratic governors.
Yeah. That mentioned, there was sufficient ticket-splitting in 2020 to have actually massive penalties. Like, Biden gained Maine comfortably however so did Susan Collins.
How will Harris’s and Trump’s insurance policies influence the value of groceries?
—Pam from Jackson, Wyoming
There may be some discuss Harris going after worth gouging? However Trump’s tariffs…
If Trump implements his proposed 10 p.c common tariff — which he would have the facility to do with out Congress — it should enhance the costs of each foreign-grown/produced meals product. So bananas and avocados would instantly develop costlier.
In the meantime, if he pursues Stephen Miller’s plans for mass deportation, that may create a labor scarcity within the agricultural sector and dramatically enhance costs. Surprisingly, Elon Musk — one in every of Trump’s largest donors — has admitted as a lot in current days, saying that there can be short-term hardship from Trump’s agenda.
If Dan Osborn, an impartial, wins his Senate race in Nebraska, he says he gained’t caucus with both the Democrats or Republicans. How will he get committee assignments? What clout will he have? Do you assume he’ll change his thoughts after/if he wins?
—Pleasure from Rockville, Maryland
Nice query. Most likely a ton of clout, however unsure how the committee course of would possibly work! Eric, would he primarily be like Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema? Or extra like a Bernie Sanders?
That’s an excellent query. Clearly, if Osborn wins, he could have carried out so with the tacit help of Democratic donors and officers, and in defiance of the Republican Social gathering.
One would possibly assume that this might lead him to caucus with Democrats — significantly if doing so would give them an efficient majority — in order to safe committee assignments. However provided that his marketing campaign/PAC is presently airing advertisements aligning him with Trump and calling him the “true conservative” within the race, I think that he sees direct affiliation with the Democrats as politically suicidal. So, I don’t know. Possibly he’s capable of commerce his vote on a single high-profile piece of laws for a committee project from whichever occasion holds the efficient majority. However yeah, Christian, I believe he can be a extra pro-labor Manchin.
I’m questioning what dimension victory constitutes a “landslide”? It looks like it may be as little as a 1 p.c margin. That doesn’t precisely invoke a landslide. What’s the deal?
—Kevin from Portland, Oregon
I suppose there’s a distinction right here between an Electoral School landslide and a “landslide” as colloquially understood. If Trump had gained the favored vote by 1 p.c in 2020, he would have in all probability swept each swing state (as a result of the Electoral School was closely biased towards the GOP that yr).
However it could be just a little deceptive to name that an electoral landslide, given that just about half of the nation would have voted towards him in that alternate situation. I believe that, as a result of polarization, real landslides like Reagan’s 1984 reelection are not potential.
Yeah, it’s useful to divide between common and Electoral School vote right here. I don’t know if the landslides we used to see in both class are potential anymore, but when polling error works out in Harris’s or Trump’s favor this yr, we’d see an “Electoral School landslide” that isn’t truly consultant of how the general public feels. Both candidate might theoretically sweep the battleground states this yr and that may end in 312-226 or 319-219 — not that a lot totally different than in 2020 or 2016. And we wouldn’t actually name these years landslides, would we?
What concerning the federal finances deficit? How has it affected the economic system through the earlier administrations of Obama, Trump, and Biden, and what are the candidates’ plans for the longer term, in the event that they’re even considering/speaking about it?
—Kirk from Austin, Texas
The federal finances deficit was largely economically useful through the Obama and Trump years. When the federal government spends extra money into the economic system than it takes out via taxes, that will increase general demand for items and companies — and thus, staff.
Within the wake of the Nice Recession, demand was excessively low for a very long time, as households and employers pared again their spending. Deficits below Obama and Trump helped to compensate for this demand shortfall, finally yielding a 2019 economic system through which unemployment was close to historic lows but inflation was negligible.
Beneath Biden, the influence of deficits is extra debatable. The American Rescue Plan’s stimulus spending spending helped forestall a rise in poverty through the Covid disaster, after which spurred a traditionally robust labor market restoration afterward. However it additionally in all probability contributed to inflation just a little on the margin. I personally nonetheless assume that this was very a lot a web optimistic: America’s restoration has been stronger than different developed international locations, at the same time as we’ve seen comparable worth will increase. However since we’ve additionally seen inflation, folks can moderately object.
I don’t assume Harris or Trump has articulated a plan for correcting America’s long-term fiscal imbalance, which is pushed by the mix of child boomers retiring and medical advances — each extending life and growing senior residents’ consumption of well being care companies and low tax charges.
I believe it’s debatable how massive of an issue the long-run deficit is, however our colleague Dylan Matthews makes the case for concern properly right here.
I might solely add that their plans for the longer term would each contain extra deficit spending, including to the nationwide debt, although by totally different levels. This evaluation comes from a extra fiscally conservative assume tank, however even the best spending plan endorsed by Kamala Harris would nonetheless be about even with Trump’s medium-spending plan.
If Kamala wins, how might she get extra Democratic seats on the Supreme Courtroom?
She would want to eke out a Democratic Senate majority, after which a conservative Supreme Courtroom justice would want to retire or die.
Courtroom-packing is off the menu, and there seemingly gained’t be a large enough Democrat Senate majority if they may get one to start with.
Proper now, it appears extra seemingly than not that the GOP will win the Senate. That is an space the place Osborn might make a distinction although. He’s pro-abortion rights, so he would in all probability help Harris’s Supreme Courtroom nominees.
What does the way forward for public training seem like below every candidate’s potential presidency?
—Dave from Bend, Oregon
Nicely, Trump needs to eliminate the Division of Training, so there’s that. I believe his advisers in all probability would do that by draining it of cash and directing public funds to different causes.
I believe the fundamental purpose is to scale back federal oversight of public training, devolve energy to high school districts, and promote vouchers that allow dad and mom to defect to non-public colleges. Though some folks in Trump’s orbit additionally kinda wish to enhance oversight of public universities — to get the “wokeness” out of there.
Yeah, and apparently it could require congressional approval to truly eliminate an company, and it’s unclear if he’d have the votes to try this.
Nearly definitely, he wouldn’t. Most likely simply finances cuts.
So it could contain extra paperwork to make the job more durable to do.
Now, for Harris, she is messaging extra funding for public colleges and a lift in pay for public faculty academics. The Democrats have additionally known as for common free pre-Okay and funding of Head Begin, the federal program that helps low-income children and their households.
She additionally favors mass scholar debt forgiveness, and has opposed makes an attempt by conservative states to limit how America’s historical past of white supremacy is taught, though it’s unclear how that stance would translate into federal coverage.
Which candidate as president will probably be extra seemingly to assist Ukraine win the battle towards Russia? Proper now they each appear equivocal.
—Mike from San Rafael, California
Harris is unquestionably extra supportive of Ukraine than Trump. In my nonexpert opinion, nonetheless, I’m skeptical that Ukraine can win the battle within the sense of recovering management over all its authorized territory. Russia’s benefits in manpower and munitions give it the higher hand in a battle of attrition, I believe. Hopefully the following administration will help Ukraine safe favorable phrases in an eventual peace treaty, although.
Yeah, agreed. Trump likes to speak about how he would resolve the battle in a day, however hasn’t offered a plan or proposed a imaginative and prescient for a way. Wouldn’t it contain territorial concessions? Would the Ukrainians comply with that?
What down-ballot questions could result in important adjustments? I do know we’re poised to have over half the inhabitants now reside in a spot the place weed is authorized, however what different essential points are on numerous state ballots?
—Evans from Kilauea, Hawaii
Weed and abortion are two massive points on state poll measures this yr. We have now some minimal wage enhance poll measures in California, Arizona, and some different states. Additionally in Arizona is a poll measure aimed on the state’s conservatives and immigration hawks to additional criminalize unauthorized border crossings and permit police to arrest unlawful immigrants.
Nevada is voting on a constitutional modification requiring voter ID. Although below state legal guidelines, they would want to go the measure a second time sooner or later for it to take impact.
