“We mentioned the F-35 problem. We made funds of $1.3 to $1.4 billion for the jets, and we noticed that Mr. Trump was well-intentioned about delivering them,” Erdogan stated. Notably, he added that Turkey’s Russian-made S-400 air protection system—on the heart of the years-long deadlock—“didn’t come up” in the course of the talks.
That element issues. In 2019, america formally expelled Turkey from the multinational F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, citing the S-400 buy as a direct risk to the plane’s stealth and intelligence safeguards. On the time, the choice was broadly seen as a pointy rebuke to a NATO ally drifting nearer to Moscow.
With a shifting geopolitical panorama and renewed U.S.-Turkey dialogue, the query returns: ought to Turkey be allowed again into the F-35 program?
Many nationwide safety specialists argue that the dangers of reintegration far outweigh the advantages—each technically and strategically.
“Turkey made its alternative regardless of repeated warnings, recommendation, and strain from allies. It went into this with eyes extensive open and determined in 2019 to proceed with the S-400 missile protection system,” Sinan Ciddi, Affiliate Professor of Safety Research on the Marine Corps College and Senior Fellow for the Basis for Protection of Democracies, tells The Cipher Transient. “Provided that, there’s no actual upside to letting Turkey again into the F-35 program. The related risks are important.”
Others contend that the potential upsides are value contemplating.
“Bringing Turkey again into the F-35 program might strengthen NATO’s southern flank, the place Turkey’s strategic place bordering Syria, Iran, and Russia issues. Its air drive, caught with getting older F-16s, would acquire fifth-generation stealth with the F-35, boosting NATO interoperability and deterrence towards adversaries like China and Russia,” John Thomas, Managing Director of strategic advocacy agency, Nestpoint Associates, tells The Cipher Transient. “The deal might enable Turkish companies to make components which might decrease prices, saving US taxpayers billions.”
Ankara had invested roughly $1.4 billion into the venture earlier than its elimination. Turkish protection contractors performed a key position in manufacturing over 900 components for the plane, a lot of which needed to be relocated to U.S. and European services at appreciable price and logistical pressure.
But even amongst advocates, most agree that reentry would should be conditional and tightly managed.
There may be additionally a compelling strategic case. Geographically, Turkey straddles Europe, Asia, and the Center East, providing air base entry close to battle zones from Syria to the Caucasus and jap Mediterranean.
Past {hardware} and geography, some view Turkey’s reintegration as a way to attract Ankara again from its more and more impartial protection path and nearer to the West. Erdogan has hedged towards U.S. sanctions by ramping up cooperation with Russia and accelerating growth of a homegrown fifth-generation fighter, the KAAN, which accomplished its first check flight in early 2024.
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The Dangers That Haven’t Gone Away
Nonetheless, the considerations that led to Turkey’s authentic expulsion stay unresolved. Chief amongst them is the continued presence of the Russian S-400 system on Turkish soil.
“The S-400’s radars are a dealbreaker,” Thomas asserted. “Russian methods might accumulate information on the F-35’s stealth, risking leaks to Moscow, endangering American pilots and allies like Israel.”
Washington officers have repeatedly warned that working each the S-400 and F-35s in the identical setting poses an unacceptable threat to delicate information and stealth know-how.
“To revive belief, Turkey should totally decommission its S-400s—dismantling key parts or transferring them to U.S. management at Incirlik. Authorized ensures, like a binding dedication to not procure Russian methods once more, should be non-negotiable,” Thomas continued.
Whereas technical safeguards and authorized commitments could assist mitigate safety dangers, others warning that deeper strategic questions stay unresolved.
Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of navy evaluation at Protection Priorities, tells The Cipher Transient that there are a number of questions Washington officers have to ask.
“How doubtless is it that Turkey would battle alongside the U.S. in a battle or disaster with F-35s ought to they regain entry to this system? Prior to now, they’ve even denied the U.S. even the flexibility to function from Turkish bases, so there are causes to be skeptical,” she stated.
From her purview, Ankara ought to “give the S-400 system again to Russia if they’re severe about reentering the F-35 program.”
“That is in all probability not possible. Decommissioning the system could be enough, however in that case, Turkey’s entry to the F-35’s categorized know-how ought to be restricted,” Kavanagh stated.
Though Turkish officers have hinted at a attainable deactivation or sale of the S-400, no concrete steps have been taken.
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Congressional Crimson Traces and Government Authority
Reintegrating Turkey wouldn’t simply be a navy or diplomatic choice—it might require navigating deep skepticism on Capitol Hill. Beneath the Countering America’s Adversaries Via Sanctions Act (CAATSA), the U.S. imposed sanctions on Turkey’s protection procurement company in 2020. Lifting these sanctions would doubtless require congressional approval, and opposition stays sturdy.
Senator Jim Risch, a senior Republican on the Senate Overseas Relations Committee, has repeatedly said that Turkey shouldn’t obtain the F-35 so long as the S-400 is operational.
Furthermore, in July, a bipartisan letter started circulating within the Home, authored by Representatives Chris Pappas (D-NH), Gus Bilirakis (R-FL), Nicole Malliotakis (R-NY), and Dina Titus (D-NV). The lawmakers urged the administration to dam any efforts they are saying would violate U.S. legislation and compromise nationwide safety coverage. The State Division responded to the letter, saying: “Now we have expressed our displeasure with Ankara’s acquisition of the S-400 system and have made clear the steps that ought to be taken as a part of our ongoing evaluation of the implementation of CAATSA sanctions.”
Ciddi identified, nevertheless, that there are methods to skirt Congress.
“The Nationwide Protection Authorization Act consists of express language: so long as Turkey maintains the S-400 on its soil, it can not obtain the F-35. That’s been the case since 2019,” he defined. “Might that be bypassed? If the President have been to invoke nationwide emergency powers, there’s a theoretical path round Congress.”
Past Congress, Ciddi continued, there are additionally “considerations from U.S. allies—Israel, Greece, Cyprus—who argue Turkey has repeatedly crossed crimson traces, not solely by buying Russian missile methods but in addition by deepening strategic ties with Moscow and supporting teams like Hamas.”
“It’s not simply concerning the S-400 anymore; it’s a couple of broader sample,” he stated. “Turkey isn’t simply shopping for arms from Russia. It’s additionally constructing nuclear energy vegetation with them, elevating considerations about their eventual nuclear functionality. And nonetheless, Erdogan hasn’t been held to account.”
There are additionally regional implications to think about. Israel, which depends closely on its fleet of F-35s for sustaining its qualitative navy edge, has traditionally been cautious of superior U.S. weapons flowing to rivals or unstable actors within the area. Though Turkey and Israel have just lately taken cautious steps towards diplomatic normalization, tensions stay excessive over Ankara’s assist for Hamas and its rhetoric towards Israeli navy operations.
On the similar time, Turkey’s protection posture has shifted notably since its elimination. It has solid stronger ties with Russia, expanded protection commerce with Central Asian states, and emphasised sovereignty over strategic alignment. Erdogan’s authorities has leaned on nationalist rhetoric and positioned Turkey as an influence dealer, impartial of each the U.S. and the EU. Analysts underscore that re-admitting Ankara with out substantial ensures dangers validating this drift—and will erode the credibility of Western alliances.
A Conditional Path Again—If There Is One
But some analysts argue that the present geopolitical second provides a slender window for recalibration. The resurgence of great-power competitors, coupled with Turkey’s financial strains and regional fatigue, could make Erdogan extra inclined to interact in negotiations.
But, even restricted reentry carries important political and strategic dangers. Whether or not Turkey is introduced again in or stored at arm’s size, the choice will set a precedent not only for arms gross sales—however for a way the U.S. manages defiant allies in an period of worldwide fragmentation.
Because the Protection Division emphasised in 2019, the F-35 program will depend on mutual belief and alignment. The query now could be whether or not these foundations will be restored—or whether or not reengagement with out clear circumstances will do extra hurt than good.
“5 U.S. administrations now have all despatched the identical message: that Turkey is just too huge to fail. Irrespective of how Turkey undermines or acts towards U.S. pursuits, it has barely ever confronted any repercussions from Washington,” Blaise Misztal, Vice President for Coverage on the Jewish Institute for Nationwide Safety of America, tells The Cipher Transient.
“To permit Turkey to get the F-35 now, with out actual steps to show it’s prepared to be a greater ally, will solely additional persuade Turkey that it may possibly do no matter it needs with out worry of U.S. pushback. International locations surrounding Turkey, in the meantime, whether or not U.S. companions or not, will solely have their fears confirmed that they need to put together themselves to confront Turkey’s rising energy.”
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