United States President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin are set to fulfill in Anchorage, Alaska, on Friday in a bid to try to finish Russia’s three-year assault on Ukraine.
Within the run-up to the assembly, Trump stated that he believes Putin is able to comply with a ceasefire. However his suggestion that Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy may “divvy issues up” has alarmed observers in Kyiv.
For his or her half, remarks from high Russian officers counsel that Moscow has tried to water down discussions concerning the conflict by linking them with different bilateral points, notably restoring financial ties with the US.
On Thursday, Putin sat down with high officers on the Kremlin to debate the Alaska assembly. He stated that he believed the US was making “honest efforts to cease the combating, finish the disaster and attain agreements of curiosity to all events concerned on this battle”.
Earlier on Thursday, Yuri Ushakov, one in every of Putin’s high international coverage aides, instructed reporters about Russia’s preparations for the talks. He stated it was “apparent to everybody that the central subject would be the settlement of the Ukraine disaster”.
“An alternate of views is predicted on the additional growth of bilateral cooperation, together with within the commerce and financial sphere,” he stated, stating that: “I wish to word that this cooperation has an enormous and, sadly, untapped potential.”
Ushakov additionally introduced that along with Russia’s Overseas Minister Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s delegation in Alaska would additionally embody the nation’s finance minister, Anton Siluanov, and Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s envoy on international funding and financial cooperation.
The inclusion of Siluanov and Dmitriev is one other signal that the Kremlin hoped to debate financial issues on the summit.
What does Russia-US commerce appear to be?
In 2021, earlier than Russia’s full-fledged invasion of Ukraine, whole commerce between Russia and the US amounted to $36.1bn. This included $6.4bn in US exports to Russia, and $29.7bn in US imports from Russia – amounting to a US commerce deficit of $23.3bn.
For context, Russia was America’s thirtieth largest commerce associate in 2021. Since then, after quite a few rounds of American sanctions, commerce between Russia and the US has fallen roughly 90 p.c.
By the way, Russia’s total commerce steadiness – leaving the US – declined considerably following its resolution to invade Ukraine. From 2022 to 2023, its worldwide steadiness of funds fell by a whopping 70 p.c, to simply $86.3bn.
However again in 2021, Russia’s commerce surplus with the US was concentrated virtually completely in commodities. Oil, minerals and base metals like iron and metal made up roughly 75 p.c of Russia’s exports. In the meantime, US exports to Russia had been concentrated in manufactured items.
Had been Russian exports to the US important?
The brief reply is not any.
By the point Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the US – whose vitality sector was remodeled by hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling within the early 2000s – was already the world’s largest oil producer, at 11.9 million barrels of oil per day.
One space the place Russia did maintain restricted significance was in sure forms of vitality merchandise. Russia provided sure grades of crude oil – notably Urals – in addition to refined merchandise like vacuum gasoline oil (VGO), residual gas oil and naphtha.
Russian VGO was particularly vital for making gasoline and diesel merchandise in US refineries, which lacked sufficient home feedstock with the optimum chemical and bodily properties.
Elsewhere, the US continues to import restricted portions of uranium hexafluoride, a chemical vital in uranium processing, from Russia. Some US utility firms nonetheless have provide contracts with Russia, which accounted for about one-third of America’s enriched uranium wants when conflict broke out.
As with vitality merchandise, nevertheless, American corporations uncovered to Russian uranium provides have readjusted their provide chains in response to sanctions. What’s extra, US firms like X-energy and Orano have invested closely in home manufacturing in recent times.
Does Russia have another leverage?
Within the wake of sanctions after February 2022, most Russian commodity shipments had been rerouted from Western nations to China at discounted costs, together with for vitality merchandise and uranium.
Certainly, commerce between China and Russia has grown in parallel with sanctions on Russia. A typical border, shared geopolitical views and joint opposition to the US have deepened bilateral relations.
Russia-China commerce noticed annual development of almost 30 p.c in each 2022 and 2023, when it hit $240.1bn, in response to the Centre for European Coverage Evaluation. In 2024, Russia climbed to seventh place amongst China’s buying and selling companions, up from thirteenth place in 2020.
Throughout that point, China has provided Russia with extra high-end merchandise – like superior electronics and industrial equipment – whereas Moscow has solidified its place as a high provider of oil and gasoline to Beijing.
What’s extra, the 2 nations conduct common naval workouts and strategic bomber patrols collectively. The US has persistently expressed issues over joint navy drills and views the China-Russia alignment as a menace to its world management function.
Putin will concentrate on these dynamics heading into Friday’s assembly.
What else may Putin provide Trump?
In March, Putin’s funding envoy – Kirill Dmitriev – claimed that Russia and the US had began talks on uncommon earth metals initiatives in Russia, and that some American firms had already expressed an curiosity in them.
“Uncommon earth metals are an vital space for cooperation, and, after all, now we have begun discussions on numerous uncommon earth metals and (different) initiatives in Russia,” Dmitriev instructed the Izvestia newspaper.
China’s virtually whole world management over the manufacturing of crucial minerals – utilized in every part from defence gear to shopper electronics – has targeted Washington’s consideration on growing its personal provides.
The US Geological Survey estimates Russia’s reserves of uncommon earth metals at 3.8 million tonnes, however Moscow has far increased estimates.
In keeping with the Pure Sources Ministry, Russia has reserves of 15 uncommon earth metals totalling 28.7 million tonnes, as of January 2023.
However even accounting for the margin of error hanging over Russia’s potential uncommon earth provides, it might nonetheless solely account for a tiny fraction of world stockpiles.
As such, the US has been pursuing minerals-for-security offers with the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Ukraine in current months, in an effort to wrestle management of the worldwide provide chain away from China.
It could try to do the identical with Russia.
What does Russia need from these conferences?
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Western nations have imposed 21,692 sanctions on Russia, principally towards people.
Key sanctions on Moscow embody import bans on Russian oil, a worth cap on Russian gas, and the freezing of Russian central financial institution property held in European monetary establishments.
However on July 14, Trump threatened to impose so-called secondary sanctions, that if carried out, would mark a notable shift.
Since then, he has focused India – the second largest purchaser of Russian oil – by doubling a 25 p.c tariff on its items to 50 p.c, as a penalty for that commerce with Moscow. To date, Trump has not imposed comparable secondary tariffs on China, the biggest shopper of Russian oil.
However he has instructed that Beijing may face such tariffs sooner or later, because the US tries to stress nations to cease shopping for Russian crude, and thereby nook Putin into accepting a ceasefire.
Members of Trump’s administration have additionally indicated that if the Trump-Putin talks in Alaska don’t go properly, the tariffs on India might be elevated additional.
In the meantime, lawmakers from each US political events are pushing for a invoice – the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 – that will additionally goal nations shopping for Russian oil and gasoline.
The invoice would give Trump the authority to impose 500 p.c tariffs on any nation that helps Russia. US senators are reportedly ready on Trump’s OK to maneuver the invoice ahead.
In Alaska, Putin is predicted to demand that Western sanctions on Russia be eased in alternate for Moscow agreeing to any peace deal.