Prime United States diplomatic negotiator Steve Witkoff visited Moscow on Wednesday in a last-ditch push to influence Russian President Vladimir Putin to comply with a ceasefire with Ukraine earlier than an August 8 deadline set by President Donald Trump.
After Witkoff’s assembly with Putin, the White Home stated that Russia had sought a gathering with Trump. The US president, the White Home stated, was open to assembly each Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Trump, who throughout his re-election marketing campaign had promised he would be capable to finish the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 24 hours if he got here to energy, has thus far did not mediate a truce regardless of months of hectic diplomacy, direct talks between Moscow and Kyiv, and telephone calls with Putin.
More and more annoyed by Putin’s unwillingness to comply with a pause in combating with out imposing circumstances unacceptable to Ukraine or the West, Trump has threatened a brand new wave of financial measures punishing Russia if it doesn’t settle for a ceasefire.
Since Russia’s full-fledged invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the US and its allies, together with the UK and the European Union, have imposed greater than 21,000 sanctions on Russia’s economic system.
The brand new tariffs Trump has threatened are in contrast to any of these earlier sanctions, nonetheless. They aim Russia by hitting out in opposition to its buying and selling companions, within the hope that they may cease shopping for from or promoting to Moscow.
However these secondary tariffs additionally carry dangers for the US and its allies.
What are the secondary tariffs Trump is threatening?
In mid-July, as peace talks stalled regardless of Trump’s efforts, the US president threatened Russia with 100% secondary tariffs if it didn’t work in the direction of a ceasefire. He gave the Kremlin a 50-day deadline to cooperate.
After Moscow recommended that it wouldn’t bow to US stress, Trump moved up the deadline, which now expires on August 8. It’s unclear if Trump’s openness to talks with Putin and Zelenskyy following Witkoff’s Moscow go to has modified that deadline.
On Wednesday, Trump doubled the tariff fee on Indian imports from 25 % – which he had introduced in late July – to 50 %, as punishment for New Delhi’s refusal to cease shopping for Russian oil. That makes India the nation dealing with the best US tariffs at current – together with Brazil.
If Trump’s secondary tariffs go into impact, items that the US imports from nations nonetheless buying and selling with Russia would face duties of 100% on high of the tariffs Trump has already imposed on these nations.
That might at the least double the value of these merchandise, making them much less aggressive within the US market.
The concept behind these tariffs is to influence Russia’s buying and selling companions to cease shopping for and promoting with the nation, isolating its economic system and depriving it of income it earns from exports, particularly from power.
Regardless of the sanctions it already faces, Russia has persistently earned greater than 500 million euros ($580m) a day from power exports since 2022. That shall be disrupted if nations cease shopping for all oil and gasoline from Russia.
Which nations may Trump’s secondary tariffs hit?
The nations most affected by such secondary tariffs could be:
- China: Russia’s most vital ally, China is by far the biggest client of its northern neighbour’s exports. In 2023, China purchased virtually a 3rd of all Russian exports. It additionally purchased virtually half of Russia’s oil exports.
- India: An outdated good friend, India has been shopping for up giant volumes of Russian crude since 2022, together with virtually 40 % of Russia’s whole oil exports in 2023. That yr, 17 % of Russia’s total exports went to India. Trump had already imposed a 25 % tariff on Indian items. On Wednesday, he doubled that fee as punishment for India’s continued oil purchases from Russia.
- Turkiye: The third-largest purchaser of Russian power, 8 % of Russia’s exports in 2023 went to Turkiye. It’s a NATO ally of the US.
Turkiye isn’t the one ally that may very well be hit if Trump really targets all those that commerce with Russia.
May US allies be hit?
Pushing again in opposition to Western threats over its ties with Russia, India has pointed to the EU’s personal commerce with Moscow. And whereas that commerce has plummeted since 2022, it’s nonetheless substantial.
In accordance with the EU, its whole commerce with Russia was value 67.5 billion euros ($77.9bn) in 2024. India’s whole commerce with Russia in 2024-25, in contrast, was value $68.7bn.
The bloc nonetheless depends closely on Russia for its liquefied pure gasoline (LNG) provides. Actually, its import of Russian LNG has been rising: In 2024, EU imports of Russian LNG have been 9 % greater than the yr earlier than.
Europe has already been hit with a 15 % tariff from Trump. Will Trump punish his closest supporters to stress Russia to finish the conflict?
May the US face dangers, too?
It isn’t simply allies – secondary tariffs on those that commerce with Russia carry dangers for the US itself, too.
Trump’s staff is at the moment engaged on a commerce take care of China, and people talks have led to a pause in a tariff conflict between the world’s two largest economies.
That detente would break down if Trump imposes 100% tariffs on Chinese language items just because Beijing additionally trades with Russia.
China, Europe and India are all main suppliers of products to the US: If the price of these merchandise – from garments to lamps to iPhones – doubles, American shoppers will really feel the pinch.
The US additionally buys chemical substances, together with uranium hexafluoride – utilized in uranium enrichment – from Russia.
Will India and China cease shopping for Russian power?
That appears unlikely. China continues to purchase oil from Iran, regardless of US sanctions – and Russia is arguably its closest strategic associate.
India has additionally proven no signal of loosening its ties with Russia. Witkoff isn’t the one international envoy visiting Moscow in the intervening time. India’s nationwide safety adviser, Ajit Doval, can also be within the Russian capital. India’s international minister, S Jaishankar, is anticipated to go to Russia later this month, and India has introduced that it intends to host Putin later this yr.
On Wednesday, India described Trump’s 50 % tariff as “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable”, including that its buy of Russian oil was rooted in its need for power safety for its 1.4 billion folks.