The infinite debate over whether or not or not the NBA Draft Lottery is rigged has all the time been a logical vs. emotional affair — like all conspiracy theories are typically. Logically talking there’s no conceivable approach it may possibly rigged. Not solely does that depend on an concept that everybody who oversees the lottery is in some way in on it and no person leaked any info, but it surely additionally opens the league as much as unbelievable litigation.
So positive, ask me in October and I’ll in all probability snort off the concept of the lottery being rigged — however after that shit final night time? Give me a break.
In case you missed it: The Dallas Mavericks magically discovered a approach to make use of their 1.8% likelihood of touchdown the No. 1 general decide to maneuver up from eleventh general and win the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes. It’s actually exceptional luck simply months after the workforce traded away Luka Doncic to the Lakers, serving to to solidify the NBA’s greatest, most-lucrative workforce in one of many league’s most vital markets.
This was additionally accompanied by extra notable groups leaping up on the expense of smaller markets, with the Spurs leaping from No. 8 to No. 2, a transfer with will enable San Antonio to pair a star with Victor Wembanyama, and the Sixers transferring up from No. 5 to No. 3 — on the expense of the Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards, and Charlotte Hornets.
- The Mavericks had a 1.8% likelihood of getting No. 1 general
- The Spurs had a 6.3% likelihood of getting No. 2 general
- The Sixers had a ten.6% likelihood of getting No. 3 general
Whereas calculating the precise odds of this taking place are far too tough for my monkey mind to grasp, as every occasion is just not impartial of one another, suffice it to say we are able to name these odds “astronomical.”
And see, “astronomical” issues occur. These are sports activities we’re speaking about. We see the inconceivable develop into realized on a nightly foundation, and moments that appear unattainable come to life each single season.
The problem is that this simply retains taking place in in the case of the NBA Draft Lottery — over, and over, and over once more. It additionally retains repeating when a workforce trades away its star participant within the prior season. So it’s solely pure when that is the collective response.
That is so rigged. What occurred to the balls labeled with the workforce names? You aren’t fooling anybody with this charade. You decide 4 random numbers and somebody yells out, “That’s Dallas!” SMH
— KB (@kalkiMD) Could 13, 2025
Rigged. Should you needed true transparency then every groups mixture of numbers would have been seen, as an alternative of somebody shouting out a random workforce because the winner.
— W. Bryant (@sigmaman_1914) Could 13, 2025
At this level there’s no cause to take the NBA at its phrase that the lottery course of is above board, as a result of we’ve seen this occur far too many instances. Within the final 15 years a complete of __ workforce have jumped to the No. 1 decide from single-digit proportion possibilities, typically after a significant participant change.
- 2011: Cleveland Cavaliers transfer to No. 1 to take Kyrie Irving from a 2.8% likelihood after LeBron James leaves for the Miami Warmth
- 2012: New Orleans Pelicans transfer to No. 1 to take Anthony Davis from a 13.7% likelihood after the workforce trades Chris Paul to the Clippers
- 2014: Cleveland Cavaliers transfer to No. 1 to take Andrew Wiggins from a 1.7% likelihood after workforce continues to battle from LeBron leaving
- 2019: New Orleans Pelicans transfer to No. 1 to take Zion Williamson from a 6% likelihood after buying and selling Anthony Davis to the Lakers
- 2025: Dallas Mavericks transfer to No. 1 to (presumably) take Cooper Flagg from a 1.8% likelihood after buying and selling Luka Doncic to the Lakers
If we merely take a look at brass tacks with the No. 1 general decide all these situations had implied odds of taking place 26 instances out of 500, or a cumulative proportion of 5.2%. If we didn’t have empirical proof why the NBA would pay again franchises for serving to large market groups it will be one factor, however this simply retains taking place over, and over, and over once more.
Nothing will change. We’ll be again right here in 4 years when the Las Vegas Mavericks win the No. 1 general decide from low odds after buying and selling Cooper Flagg to the Los Angeles Lakers. We’ll complain as soon as extra, and the basketball will hold spinning.
Sorry to the followers of the Jazz, Wizard and Hornets — as a result of y’all have been screwed.