Valspar Championship odds, picks: Fleetwood, Schauffele favored

The ultimate occasion of the PGA Tour’s Florida Swing heads to the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook, which is in Palm Harbor, simply outdoors of Tampa. It’s a doozy, too, with eight out of the highest 25 gamers within the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) teeing it up this week.

That features World No. 3 Xander Schauffele, who will make his third straight begin after lacking two months as a consequence of a rib harm. He has not seemed like his major-champion self over the previous two weeks, however Schauffele is likely one of the favorites as a result of he’s at all times a risk to win. Maybe he knocks off a number of the rust this week and does simply that.

The opposite favourite at this week’s Valspar Championship is Tommy Fleetwood, at the moment the ninth-ranked participant on this planet. The Englishman has had a outstanding run of consistency courting again to his second-place end on the Olympics final July. He has posted 14 straight top-25 finishes around the globe, however has no wins to indicate for it. Remarkably, ‘Tommy-lad’ has but to win on the PGA Tour. Possibly that can change this week.

After which there’s Justin Thomas, who has proven flashes of brilliance to this point in 2025. He tied the course document at TPC Sawgrass final week, has three top-10s already this season, and ranks tenth on tour in strokes gained approaching the inexperienced. His iron play has been flawless, however his putter has let him down at instances. If he can get the ball rolling this week, possibly Thomas will break a virtually three-year winless drought. His final win got here on the 2022 PGA Championship.

As for the course itself, the match yardage is listed at 7,352 yards — the identical precise size as TPC Sawgrass final week. However this course is a par-71, whereas Sawgrass performs to a par-72. As such, the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is the longest par-71 that the PGA Tour has performed to this point this season. Different notable developments associated to this week’s format are that the ninth gap has been lengthened, and the tough will stay at 3.75 inches. Match officers elevated the peak of the tough from three inches to three.75 two years in the past. Since they did so, the profitable rating has been 12-under and 10-under, respectively.

Scores may very well be all over the place this week, particularly given Thursday’s forecast. Oddsmakers modified the traces after the PGA Tour launched the tee sheet on Tuesday afternoon, favoring these taking part in within the Thursday morning-Friday afternoon wave. Thursday afternoon’s forecast seems ominous, with remoted showers and gusts as much as 32 miles per hour predicted. The remainder of the week, nonetheless, seems good, albeit chillier than typical, with breezes round 10 to fifteen miles per hour.

Valspar Championship Odds:

Listed here are the newest odds for gamers to win the Valspar Championship, courtesy of FanDuel:

Tommy Fleetwood +1100

Xander Schauffele +1200

Sepp Straka +1600

Justin Thomas +2000

Tom Kim +2200

Sam Burns +2200

Shane Lowry +2800

Michael Kim +3000

Adam Scott +3500

Corey Conners +3500

Keith Mitchell +4000

Byeong Hun An +4000

Will Zalatoris +4500

Thomas Detry +4500

Stephan Jaeger +5000

Rasmus Højgaard +5000

Jacob Bridgeman +5500

Kurt Kitayama +5500

Jordan Spieth +6000

Joe Highsmith +6000

Harry Corridor +6000

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6500

Nicolai Højgaard +7000

Alex Smalley +7000

Kevin Yu +7500

Billy Horschel +8000

Viktor Hovland +8000

J.T. Poston +8000

Taylor Moore +8000

Luke Clanton +8000

Jake Knapp +9000

Kevin Roy +9000

Sahith Theegala +9000

Ben Griffin +9000

Jhonattan Vegas +9000

Matt Kuchar +9000

Thorbjorn Olesen +9000

Rico Hoey +9000

Matt Wallace +9000

Gary Woodland +10000

Ryan Fox +10000

Picture by Julio Aguilar/Getty Pictures

Taking part in Via’s Picks:

Jack Milko — Workers Author, Golf

This is likely one of the tougher tracks on the PGA Tour, a course that requires precision from tee to inexperienced and avoiding the massive quantity on the scorecard.

Corey Conners does that in addition to anyone.

Over the previous two weeks, on troublesome Florida programs at Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass, Conners completed solo third and tied for sixth, respectively. He posted eight rounds underneath par over that stretch, an extremely spectacular stat contemplating Bay Hill performed to a median of 72.577 (+0.577 over par), and TPC Sawgrass wreaked havoc over the weekend. Those that made the lower at The Gamers noticed brutal circumstances, as the common rating over the ultimate 36 holes was 73.45 — a complete you’ll see at a U.S. Open. But, Conners made solely three bogies through the third and fourth rounds, two of which got here as a result of he couldn’t stand up and down from the sand. The opposite got here by means of a three-putt.

He shot a 6-under 66 early on Saturday earlier than the wind kicked up after which posted a 1-under 71 on Sunday.

The Canadian gained nearly six strokes off the tee final week at TPC Sawgrass, good for third among the many subject. He’s additionally nineteenth on tour in driving accuracy proportion and thirty second on tour in greens in regulation proportion this season. It’s value noting that Conners ranked third in strokes gained method all through 2024 too. He retains the ball in play and hits loads of greens.

The one knock on him, although, is his brief recreation, as evidenced by his errors over the weekend at The Gamers. Placing just isn’t his forte. Neither is his play across the greens. He let loads of alternatives slip by at each Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass. However I’ve a sense that Conners will get the ball to drop within the gap this week.

His document on the Valspar Championship is strong, too. In his solely two begins at Copperhead, Conners tied for sixteenth in 2018 and completed T-21 in 2021. He betters that this week after which some by choosing up the third PGA Tour title of his profession.

FanDuel Odds: Conners to win at +3500

Picture by David Cannon/Getty Pictures

RJ Ochoa — Senior Producer, Running a blog the Boys

One of many hottest golfers on this planet proper now’s Michael Kim. He could not have made as large of a splash in Ponte Vedra, however he was knocking on the door per week earlier on the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Earlier than lacking the lower at The Gamers, he had completed inside the highest 13 in 5 straight begins, with three of them being top-six finishes.

Lest we neglect that Kim made a number of eagles in a spherical for the primary time in his profession at Bay Hill. The purpose is that he’s taking part in at an insane stage, even when final week was an off-one for him.

With the percentages working in my favor, I actually like Michael Kim to select up an enormous win this week.

FanDuel Odds: Kim to win at +3000

Picture by Brian Spurlock/Getty Pictures

Mark Schofield — Workers Author, NFL and System 1

Copperhead is a observe the place your second shot may matter greater than your first.

Which is why I’m backing Sepp Straka this week.

Straka is likely one of the finest gamers this 12 months in strokes gained on method, rating sixth in that statistic on the PGA Tour with a mark of 0.933. He’s fifth in greens in regulation (73.69%), and Straka ranks eighth on the tour on method photographs from inside 100 yards. He’s additionally third in proximity to the opening.

This can be a powerful course, however with how properly he’s taking part in along with his irons proper now, it may very well be good for him.

FanDuel Odds: Straka to win at +1600

Picture by David Cannon/Getty Pictures

Jed Meshew — Workers Author, MMA Combating

First off, thanks for letting me be a part of this little shindig. Although my experience lies in fight sports activities, I’m an avid golf fan (and super-mid participant) and really a lot take pleasure in taking flyers on match champion picks. So, with that in thoughts, let me inform you why I’m backing Justin Thomas this weekend.

Thomas didn’t have the very best weekend on the Gamers, ending tied for thirty third, however there’s a purpose he has low odds once more this week: Thomas’s electrical second spherical noticed him tie the course document 62 at TPC Sawgrass. In the event you haven’t seen it, go try the highlights as a result of it’s one thing to marvel at.

Thomas had full management and arguably left a couple of photographs on the market. For a course that requires precision, Thomas has the ball going proper the place he desires it (don’t discuss to me about his 78 on Thursday; that’s previously, and the previous is for cowards). On high of that, Thomas famously loves the Copperhead Course and has two High 10 finishes in his previous three journeys right here.

FanDuel Odds: Thomas to win at +2000

Picture by Richard Heathcote/Getty Pictures