It begins with 280 characters. On 15 March 2025, Donald Trump declares a 20 % tariff on Mexican and Canadian oil. What follows isn’t just a market shock however the unraveling of the worldwide order. Inside months, the U.S. faces monetary collapse, geopolitical turmoil and an financial freefall unseen for the reason that Nice Despair. That is the value of America First. This projection piece by Michel Santi highlights how one impulsive tweet has the potential to plunge the world into chaos — from market crashes to diplomatic crises, this story goals to showcase how Trump’s digital outbursts stay a drive of world disruption.
Trump Tweet and the Preliminary Response (15 March 2025)
At exactly 8:43 within the morning of 15 March 2025, Individuals are greeted by one other tweet from Donald Trump — as transient as it’s devastating, its sentiment hit the nation like an earthquake:
“America First! 20 % tax on Mexican and Canadian oil, instantly. No extra power dependence,” it says.
That is no peculiar slogan, the “tax” President Trump is referring to is a direct financial assault. Mexico and Canada present 30 % of America’s oil. Slicing off this very important supply threatens the economic system. This units off a sequence of occasions with instant panic within the markets. Information channels go dwell and specialists panic. Merchants, eyes glued to the screens, see costs soar. Brent jumps from USD 100 to USD 130 in 48 hours. A scarcity is feared in an already tight market. It’s a domino impact that’s felt instantly. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) forecasts 7 % inflation. The Fed tries to react. At 10:30 P.M., Jerome Powell broadcasts a price hike to six % in Might, to curb inflation with out stalling development.
Monetary Chaos (17 March, 2025)
The fallout units in by 17 March and it’s monetary chaos because the inventory market faces an unprecedented crash: simple cash is over. The S&P 500 plunges 8 % in a day, from 6,050 to five,565 factors, on account of automated promoting. The GAFAM giants collapse: -20 % in 5 days. Apple shares go from USD 200 to USD 160, Amazon shares plunge from USD 180 to USD 144 leading to a lack of USD 1.5 trillion. There’s common sense of capitulation within the air and concurrently the phrase “capitulation” is on everybody’s lips. Buying and selling platforms are saturated, promote orders explode. The crypto market trembles. Bitcoin, falls from USD 110,000 to USD 80,000 on March 18 as speculators promote in panic. This drop heralds extra severe issues.
Crypto Disaster and Flaws within the System (March 20, 2025)
The domino impact continues and by 20 March, the disaster spreads reaching cryptocurrencies. Binance broadcasts: “Withdrawals suspended for safety.” Boards are infected, #CryptoCrash and #BinanceScam go viral. Bitcoin collapses to USD 50,000, shedding USD 200 billion. The domino impact is relentless: Coinbase suspends operations, Kraken implodes. The crypto sector — as soon as a logo of monetary freedom — collapses. The dangerous loans of American banks which are linked to crypto are additionally referred to as into query. It’s akin to the collapse of a home of playing cards. The issues within the system emerge and this fragility reveals the weaknesses of banks, weakened by Trump’s deregulation. A serious monetary disaster looms, threatening the worldwide economic system.
The System Cracks (March 25, 2025)
The Breaking level comes on 25 March because the system cracks. There’s a large devaluation of “poisonous belongings”. On 25 March, the Financial institution of America — who has been pressured to reveal USD 150 billion of the USD 800 billion in dangerous loans, broadcasts a major devaluation.
This issues:
- Mortgage loans (USD 50 billion): 15 % of households are struggling to pay, with charges heading to 7.5 %.
- Loans to tech corporations (USD 60 billion): The autumn of the GAFAM makes these loans ineffective.
- Crypto publicity (USD 40 billion): The USD 10 billion invested in Binance is now value solely USD 2 billion after the suspension of withdrawals.
Speedy repercussions proceed as panic units in on 25 March 25 to 26 March. Financial institution of America’s announcement triggers a run. On March 25, strains type in entrance of banks, on-line withdrawals explode and greater than USD 50 billion is withdrawn in simply 48 hours. The financial institution’s failure is feared. This results in an emergency intervention because the Federal Deposit Insurance coverage Company (FDIC) unlocks USD 300 billion to reassure prospects, guaranteeing accounts as much as USD 250,000. However this solely covers a portion of the estimated USD 1.2 trillion in losses, fueling the panic.
The chain of occasions varieties a vicious spiral because the domino impact strikes the markets. Financial institution shares collapse: Financial institution of America loses 30 % on 25 March 25, dragging down Wells Fargo and Citigroup. The subsequent day on 26 March, the S&P 500 falls beneath 5,400 factors. Has Trump’s deregulation created a monetary bomb? This episode is a turning level. The extent of the “poisonous belongings” hidden within the US banking system is uncovered. Consultants converse of a “Minsky Second”: a breaking level the place extreme debt causes monetary collapses. The bubbles (tech, crypto, actual property) burst, threatening the worldwide economic system.
Geopolitical and Financial Contagion (April-June 2025)
As chaos spreads, China spots a possibility. Below strain from Trump’s tariffs, China intensifies its navy workout routines close to Taiwan, seeing an opportunity to say its energy. The worldwide economic system enters a interval of utmost instability.
April 1: Ukraine Deserted
On 1 April, Trump cuts navy assist to Ukraine with a tweet: “Europe pays or loses.” With out assist, Ukraine weakens and Russia occupies 30 % of the nation by June. Cereal exports fall by 20 %, wheat rises to USD 450 per ton, and European gasoline to EUR 70 per MW/h. The EU enters a recession, with GDP declining by 3 % in 2025.
April 10-15: Commerce Struggle with China
From 10 April to fifteen, Trump imposes 50 % tariffs on Chinese language merchandise, accusing Beijing of “stealing American know-how.” China retaliates on 15 April with a naval blockade round Taiwan, decreasing TSMC’s semiconductor exports by 40 %. The Nasdaq plunges 30 % to 12,000 factors, TSMC loses 50 % of its worth, and international auto manufacturing falls by 20 % on account of a chip scarcity.
April 20-25: Army Escalation within the Center East
Between April 20 and 25, Trump helps an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear websites. Iran retaliates by attacking oil tankers within the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent to USD 145 per barrel. Oil-importing international locations (Japan, India, EU) endure and international markets panic.
The Collapse of the USA (July-September 2025)
The autumn accelerates and by July there’s a actual property crash. That very same month, the USA’ 10-year Treasury yields attain 5.5 %, pushing mortgage charges to 7.5 %. Defaults explode, with 15 % of households behind on funds. Actual property costs fall by 20 % (from a mean of USD 400,000 to USD 320,000). There are 1.5 million foreclosures.
August: Widespread Recession
In August, US inflation exceeds 8 %. Consumption falls by 12 %. Firms lay off staff, and unemployment rises from 4 % to eight % (leading to 12 million unemployed). US GDP declines by 5 % and 40,000 SMEs go bankrupt every month. On August 10, Wells Fargo broadcasts a USD 100 billion loss, however Trump refuses any assist saying, “No socialism!”. The Federal Reserve (Fed) injects USD 1 trillion, weakening the greenback (EUR/USD at 1.35).
September: Systemic Banking Disaster
In September, banking losses within the US attain USD 1.2 trillion. Citigroup teeters on the point of chapter. The S&P 500 falls to 4,000 factors (-33 % since March), and Bitcoin collapses to USD 30,000.
World Repercussions (July-December 2025)
The disaster spreads to Europe and from July to September, gasoline costs attain EUR 90 per MWh, and European exports to the US fall by 25 %. EU GDP declines by 7 %, Germany enters a recession (-6 %), and the French CAC 40 falls to 4,000 factors (-45 %). Protests erupt in France, the place inflation reaches 10 %.
Asia Below Stress
Between July and October, Chinese language development stagnates (+1 % GDP) on account of tariffs and the Taiwan blockade. Japan — hit by oil costs — sees its economic system decline by 5 %. The Nikkei and Hold Seng indices lose 35 %, or USD 6 trillion. This additionally causes the stagnated development of rising international locations. The rise in US charges to six % causes defaults: Argentina defaults on USD 80 billion in July, and Turkey on USD 120 billion in September. The Mexican Peso devalues by 40 %.
Psychological Harm (July-December 2025)
The psychological injury begins and worry units in. On 1 July, Trump tweets: “The weak fall, the robust survive — that is America!” Panic units in: US consumption falls by 18 %, and 60 % of households cease investing. The VIX index breaks the 60 degree. From August to December, Trump isolates himself much more. He threatens to go away the UN on August 15, destroying international confidence. Firms scale back their investments by 20 %, banks freeze loans and chaos amplifies.
Last Penalties (October-December 2025)
The “apocalypse” is on its means and the USA is in free fall. Earlier than the invasion of Taiwan, the S&P 500 falls to three,500 factors (-42 %) and Bitcoin collapses to USD 15,000 (-86 %). US GDP declines by 9 %, and unemployment reaches 12 % (18 million unemployed). Riots escape in 15 cities: looting in Detroit on October 5, clashes in Los Angeles on October 12. Professional-Trump militias patrol, including to the instability.
Then, China proceeds on its invasion of Taiwan. On October 20, after months of rigidity, China launches a navy operation in opposition to Taiwan, citing “reunification.” The Folks’s Liberation Military (PLA) cuts web cables, strikes navy bases and establishes a beachhead on the west coast, regardless of robust resistance (over 10,000 useless).
- Markets: Nasdaq at 9,600 factors (-20 %), S&P 500 at 3,200 factors, gold at USD 3,000/ounce.
- Chip Scarcity: TSMC stops exports, auto manufacturing -40 %, Apple and Nvidia -30 % income, electronics costs double.
The geopolitical response is swift and Trump tweets: “China steals Taiwan whereas Biden sleeps!” He refuses any navy intervention (“The US received’t pay”), imposes a complete embargo on China, and declares a state of emergency on November 15, accusing the Fed, China and “Democratic traitors.” The greenback falls (EUR/USD at 1.55) and inflation reaches 10 %. Japan and South Korea, terrified, see the Nikkei index fall to fifteen,000 factors (-40 %). The EU, already in recession (-7 %), can do nothing within the face of gasoline costs reaching EUR 100 per MWh.
The world is in ruins as international GDP falls by 7 %, inventory markets lose 65 % of their worth (USD 45 trillion) and USD 18 trillion in debt defaults. The World Meals Programme (WFP) estimates the variety of folks affected by famine at 90 million. Iran blocks the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and Brent oil soars to USD 160 per barrel. The US greenback represents solely 45 % of world reserves, whereas the Chinese language yuan reaches 15 %.
Overwhelmed, Trump blames his enemies on December 20: “We’re in an financial struggle, and I’ll win!” Xi Jinping celebrates a “historic necessity,” regardless of a Chinese language economic system rising by solely +0.5 %. December 2025 ushers in a brand new legacy of chaos for the Trump administration. Trump turns into the image of the chaos he has created, validating economist Hyman Minsky’s idea on the fragility of the monetary system.
The European Union to the Rescue (January 2026 – December 2027)
The subsequent two years sees hope because the European Union involves the rescue.
January-March 2026: Dealing with the Chaos
The world is in ruins: -7 % international GDP, USD 45 trillion misplaced in markets, USD 18 trillion in defaulted debt. The US is paralyzed, China is wavering (+0.5 % GDP), however the EU (-7 %) holds agency, with a secure forex (EUR/USD 1.55). On January 5, France and Germany (Angela Merkel is recalled) launch the World Renaissance Plan (GRP) in Pau: EUR 2 trillion to stabilize the economic system, financed by eurobonds and taxes on tech giants.
- February: Fuel returns to EUR 60 per MWh (settlement with Russia), and Brent to USD 120 per barrel (mediation with Iran). EUR 500 billion invested in chip manufacturing (TSMC in Poland and Germany).
- March: EUR 300 billion in humanitarian assist, decreasing the variety of folks affected by famine to 50 million (Elon Musk leaves his US roles and requests to coordinate humanitarian assist, with Thierry Breton).
April-June 2026: Mediation and Rebound
- April: Ceasefire between China and Taiwan (April 15), and particular standing for Taiwan. Trump accepts EUR 500 billion in EU loans, lifts tariffs and disarms his militias.
- Might: Restructuring of USD 18 trillion in debt, the French CAC 40 reaches 5,000 factors and the US S&P 500 reaches 4,000 factors. Investments in inexperienced infrastructure (EUR 1.5 trillion, 5 million jobs) and the EU GDP improves to -2 %.
- June: Peace settlement between India and Pakistan, and wheat value returns to USD 350 per ton.
July-December 2026: The EU as Financial Chief
- July: The euro is utilized in 60 % of world transactions.
- September: Signing of the World Stability Pact (GSP), and international GDP recovers to -3 %.
- December: Brent returns to USD 100 per barrel, the S&P 500 to 4,500 factors and Bitcoin to USD 25,000.
January-December 2027: The Indispensable EU
- January: World GDP jumps to +1 %, and the EU’s to +2 %. A World European Council (GEC) is convened in Paris.
- March: Trump is marginalised (his impeachment course of fails). He takes refuge in Las Vegas, sinking into oblivion. A Common Prosperity Pact is established by Europe.
After the “Minsky Second” of 2025, the EU emerges in 2027 with EUR 5 trillion invested to stabilize the economic system and mediate conflicts. It turns into the benchmark, with a dominant euro, thriving know-how, and a harmonious societal mannequin, standing in distinction to a divided United States and a weakened China.
This opinion piece was written by Michel Santi.
For extra on the creator, Michel Santi, go to his web site right here: michelsanti.fr
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