It’s the sport of the weekend, if not the whole season. Ravens vs. Payments is the heavyweight matchup of the AFC, with the winner seemingly cementing themselves as Tremendous Bowl favorites. Two of the league’s greatest offenses, led by two quarterbacks with equal declare for the MVP award — it doesn’t get a lot better than this.
There are causes you can choose Buffalo right here. The climate, an out of doors stadium, and Josh Allen’s capability to create one thing out of nothing are the most important promoting factors for the Payments — however in the end the Ravens have three large causes they need to be capable to win and transfer on.
No. 1: Defensive disparity
The largest distinction between the Ravens and Payments this season is on the defensive facet of the ball. Baltimore ranks sixth within the league in defensive DVOA, whereas the Payments rank eleventh. Which may seem to be a small distinction, however the margins between these groups are razor skinny — and that issues.
Stacking them up head-to-head in non-advanced metrics exhibits why the Ravens are so sturdy too.
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Passing TDs allowed
Ravens: nineteenth
Payments: twenty fourth -
Passing YPA allowed
Ravens: thirteenth
Payments: seventeenth -
Speeding TDs allowed
Ravens: seventh
Payments: tenth -
Speeding YPA allowed
Ravens: 1st
Payments: nineteenth
These are all comparatively small margins, however once more: Razor skinny margins. When each considerable protection edge goes to Baltimore, and offensive these groups are so shut, it finally ends up changing into a extra vital issue.
No. 2: Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson’s legs
The 2024 season was all in regards to the return of the operating again, and it’s no shock that seven of the High 10 rushers this 12 months all made the playoffs. No one must go over Derrick Henry’s resume, however the dimension he’s added to the offense is profound.
Stopping the run has been an issue for Buffalo this season. The workforce ranked twelfth in yards allowed, and nineteenth in yards per try. That is made much more problematic when you think about what Lamar Jackson can do on designed runs.
Previously the reply to stopping Baltimore on offense was comparatively easy: Include Lamar, and every little thing else takes care of itself. When he was compelled to be the quarterback and main rusher the stress was on Jackson to play hero ball each sport. Now the workforce can merely pivot and make Henry a focus when wanted, and that’s paid off in an enormous manner.
The Payments do have the sting towards the go, however it’s the run sport that can seemingly outline this matchup.
No. 3: Cross rush
In a sport like this it actually may come all the way down to who can gradual the opposing famous person QB extra typically, and there’s a transparent edge right here to Baltimore. The Large 3 of the Ravens go rush are Kyle Van Noy (12.5 sacks), Odafe Oweh (10 sacks), and Nnamdi Madubuike (6.5 sacks), who’ve mixed for over 90 pressures this season.
On the opposite facet of the ball the highest three Payments go rushers have a mixed 20 sacks and 69 pressures. That’s a big distinction, significantly with Madubuike from the DT place who amassed 40 pressures for the Ravens this season.
Collapsing the pocket from the center and disrupting performs earlier than they begin is essential. It additionally helps forestall Allen from gashing the Ravens up the center along with his legs. It’s not about utterly shutting down a QB like Josh Allen, as a result of he’s ok to make you pay — it’s merely about slowing him down extra that they’ll gradual your man. That’s why the Ravens have the sting right here.
In the end this sport is the most important coin toss of the weekend. It really may go both manner, however there are some stable causes to consider Baltimore is within the driver’s seat earlier than we hit Sunday.