Why Chiefs vs. Texans may be probably the most intriguing recreation of the NFL Divisional Playoffs

I’m really fairly intrigued by this matchup between the Chiefs and Texans, largely as a result of I believe the Texans’ protection is enjoying among the greatest soccer within the NFL proper now. What they did to the Chargers on Wild Card weekend would possibly violate the Geneva Conference. They pressured Justin Herbert on greater than half of his dropbacks, pressured 4 interceptions and allowed a -0.58 EPA per play, the fourth-lowest within the playoffs since 2016 (per Subsequent Gen Stats). This recreation felt like the complete manifestation of what head coach Demeco Ryans has wished in his protection since coming from San Francisco. Whereas the Texans don’t ship stress fairly often (fifteenth in blitz fee per Professional Soccer Reference), however once they do, they’re BRINGING IT. They’re seventh in Sack Price and first in “Holy Shit” moments once they tee off on opponents, and so they do it from fronts that attempt to isolate their opponent’s weakest hyperlink.

A whole lot of occasions, when the Texans try to tee off on their opponents, they line up in these overloaded fronts. Which means that Houston will put three defensive linemen on one aspect of the road, after which certainly one of their star EDGEs Danielle Hunter or Will Anderson Jr. on the opposite aspect by themselves. Then, they’ll stroll up a linebacker, more often than not Azeez Al-Shaiir to the aspect the place Anderson Jr. or Hunter’s lone aspect. It’ll seem like this:

From right here, the Texans need to get the opposing offensive line to 5-0 their safety. When the offensive line sees 5 quick threats and so they go man-to-man safety. When Houston will get groups to isolate their protections, they hammer them with picks and stunts, numerous loops that work like decide and rolls in basketball. With two excellent EDGEs on the surface, they will actually pressure the offensive line’s hand by ensuring the tackles are occupied, then play video games with the opposite linemen. What I like about this cross rush recreation is as a substitute of straight speeding Al-Shaiir by the A-gap, they’ve him stunt with Hunter, to make sure that no person from the bottom of this overloaded entrance can intrude with Anderson Jr flying in off a stunt. Anderson Jr. hits Justin Herbert’s arm and a chaotic play ends in a win.

Now, the Texans go up towards a group that has merely eviscerated defenses which are run equally to theirs. Of their final matchup, Houston pressured QB Patrick Mahomes on 12 of his 45 dropbacks, per Sports activities Info Options. On these 12 dropbacks when pressured, the Chiefs went 7-10 for 60 yards and likewise had a 0.28 EPA per play. The Texans’ 26.7% stress fee was thirteenth for them on the season, however what stood out probably the most going again and watching that recreation was how usually the Chiefs had solutions any time the Texans confirmed stress.

Houston likes to be in Cowl 1 once they present these stress appears, and for good purpose: CBs Derek Stingley Jr and Kamari Lassiter are phenomenal. Per SIS, Houston performs the fourth most snaps of Cowl 1 when sending 5 or extra blitzers within the NFL, and whenever you particularly filter it to 3rd down, they leap to second. Realizing this concerning the Texans, Kansas Metropolis unleashed a complete slew of solutions towards man protection. This model of the Chiefs are a West Coast offense fanatics’ dream: they hammer opponents with pace now with WR Hollywood Brown again, however they do it horizontally, opening lanes for Travis Kelce to sit down within the voids. Mahomes nonetheless shreds man protection, however now they pry open lanes with stacks and pure picks to achieve leverage. On this rep towards the Texans, Kansas Metropolis motions Kelce to get a person or zone inform, and when he sees the defender observe him, the Chiefs realize it’s man. They’ve a designed stack with WR Deandre Hopkins and Xavier Worthy, however Worthy fakes getting into and sprints proper again to the surface. Straightforward leverage play that will get them 15 yards.

I ponder if Houston tries to throw extra zone in these conditions to throw Kansas Metropolis off the second time round, which can also be a threat as a result of Patrick Mahomes is superb vs. zone. Nonetheless, the sport goes to be gained or misplaced primarily based on if this Houston cross rush can have an effect on Mahomes, and make his life troublesome.

Washington Commanders-Detroit Lions

This recreation is all about how the Lions defend one other scrambling QB in Jayden Daniels. To maintain it fairly easy, Jayden Daniels IS the engine that retains the Commanders’ offense going. Whether or not it’s his steadily rising golf golf equipment he has as a passer or the pressure he’s as a runner, the Commanders’ offense lives and dies on his means. There are two features of this matchup that I’m particularly watching: the Daniels’ scrambles and the targets over the center of the sector. In opposition to man protection, Daniels has a 12.1% scramble fee and a 0.13 EPA per play. He’s such a dynamic pressure as a runner when he can punish man protection, and the Commanders have constructed this offense to let Daniels flip it free as a runner each time he sees a lane. The Lions really aren’t that dangerous towards scrambles! nineteenth within the league in EPA per play on scrambles and twentieth in Constructive Play Price. Nonetheless, additionally they lead the remaining groups left within the playoffs in Cowl 1 fee, and in Cowl 1 you permit a little bit of gaps for runners similar to Daniels.

But, I believe I fear extra concerning the Lions’ cross protection in Cowl 1 towards this group, particularly the linebackers. The numbers haven’t been there for Daniels this season towards Cowl 1 (nineteenth in complete EPA), however towards Tampa he confirmed extra of a capability to poke holes in the midst of the sector. He was firing passes towards Cowl 1 concentrating on over routes towards Tampa Bay’s overmatched corners, hammering numerous WR Terry McLaurin like this over route. Love how McLaurin works this path to the within, form of stair-stepping this path to create extra separation.

For Detroit, there are three gamers that I’m circling: LBs Alex Anzalone and Jack Campbell, and CB Amik Robertson. Anzalone got here again of their emphatic week 18 victory over the Minnesota Vikings, and he supplied one other regular hand in the midst of that protection, particularly in cross protection. He drew the duty of defending TE TJ Hockenson, and his physicality actually annoyed the Vikings’ TE. I believe that’s going to be the play towards Zach Ertz, who Daniels actually trusts within the passing recreation.