Usually, I spend this part speaking a few particular matchup. What one facet of the ball must do to the opposite, or one thing that I’m watching. Nonetheless, this kaiju battle between two of the most effective offenses in soccer really jogs my memory of a quote from one of many world’s biggest scribes, Norman Osborn.
The titan-fight between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Payments is the top of bullyball within the NFL, a matchup between two groups which have morphed their offenses to grow to be rather more bodily and ground-based en path to large success within the NFL—oh yeah, and having Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen assist too. These two offenses are very comparable of their targets, however how they strategy them is the place the 2 paths differ.
The Baltimore Ravens are the zenith of bodily soccer. With three tight ends they will play at any time, a 300-pound fullback in Patrick Ricard and a 380-pound guard in Daniel Faalele, blocking for a 250-pound Norse God operating again in Derrick Henry. Baltimore likes to condense their units and run energy and counter, and are among the best groups within the NFL at it. On these hole runs, Henry is second within the NFL in EPA per carry behind Saquon Barkley, and has an absurd 59.1% Success Fee on these carries. That’s additionally whereas dealing with probably the most defenders within the field. You know the Ravens are going to attempt to hit you exhausting, however then the issue turns into stopping them. I like how they use RB Patrick Ricard in affect movement, bringing him throughout the formation to get a operating begin, earlier than Faalele comes by means of.
So, to calculate: as a defender, it’s a must to hit 300-pound Ricard and 380-pound Faalele earlier than you get the chance to even attempt to hit Henry. Good freaking luck.
The place they will construct off of their affect energy stuff is thru their counter sport, which they pulled out towards Pittsburgh. You possibly can see how Patrick Queen is so juiced as much as attempt to get excessive of this run considering the down blocks are coming from his proper, however they swap it up and land a giant play as he overruns it.
Now, simply because the Ravens are in heavier personnel doesn’t imply that they will’t throw out of it. All three of their tight ends may be elements within the passing sport now that Charlie Kolar is again, and the Ravens need to assault downfield whereas in 22 personnel. Baltimore has a blistering 0.42 EPA per play. Jackson has an Common Throw Depth of 8.4 yards out of twenty-two personnel, and offensive coordinator Todd Monken does such a great job of constructing in throws to each a part of the sphere, attacking with TEs Isaiah Possible and Mark Andrews (who has been unimaginable to complete the season). This throw from their week 4 tilt towards the Payments stands out not just for the execution, however how each groups attacked one another. The Ravens run an exquisite sail idea with Possible break up from the road and Andrews on it, however the Payments are of their base personnel. Lamar layers the throw and the Ravens get an explosive.
The Payments are literally fairly good towards 21 personnel, permitting a -0.14 EPA per play. I believe it is because it permits them to nonetheless play nickel towards it, with slot nook Taron Johnson on the sphere. Johnson, together with LBs Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard, all missed the primary Ravens’ sport, so I’m curious in the event that they’ll attempt to play their nickel towards the beefier personnel of the Ravens. The Payments aren’t a niche management workforce. In opposition to offenses that play lots of 21 or 22 personnel, they attempt to promote out towards the run, bringing too many numbers into the field for the run sport to have any house. In opposition to this play by the Broncos, it’s notable how they defended this play that resulted in a 3 yard acquire. The movement brings Johnson into the field, however they spin S Damar Hamlin into the field late to get again numbers. Johnson whacks the FB, however Ed Oliver is ready to eat a double workforce, permitting Bernard to maneuver freely. This isn’t a niche run, however how the levers have been pulled are notable.
It’s value noting that the regardless of being superb towards 21, the Payments hand over a 0.26 EPA per play towards 22 personnel and a 0.52 EPA per cross towards it. A part of why I that quantity is so excessive is as a result of they’re pressured to be of their base personnel with three linebackers on the sphere. Do they play that card towards Baltimore and pray they don’t hit explosive passes? Or do they play Johnson and hope not to surrender the Derrick Henry lightning bolt?
Flipping it riverside, the Payments’ offense has morphed from being a selection and shred offense right into a run by means of a MF’ers face offense, they usually’ve benefitted from it. Regardless of not throwing the ball practically as usually in impartial conditions, they’ve managed to have a better EPA per play than ever earlier than. It’s really fairly helpful to run that rattling ball, regardless of what studies might say.
The Payments’ impartial cross frequency was 61.5% in 2022. It’s dropped 10 factors this season, whereas their EPA per play has gone up from 0.111 to 0.186. Being complementary and solely asking your mutant QB to be a mutant when wanted is an effective factor!
— JP Acosta (@acosta32_jp) January 14, 2025
The place they’ve been probably the most devastating is once they have their jumbo grouping in, with OL Alec Anderson. The Payments use their 6 OL bundle greater than any workforce within the NFL, they usually’re devastating out of it. They common 5 yards per perform of this look and a 0.05 EPA per play, mashing individuals into submission. They’ll have him seal off the sting on toss performs, like this rep towards the Broncos:
Or, bringing him in blast movement as a puller on YY Counter (it’s basically like bringing one other linemen round, however calling him a decent finish is simply funnier):
With Anderson on the sphere, the Payments can get massive and mash groups, however will also be explosive throwing the ball out of it as nicely. They’ll line Anderson up in varied spots, utilizing him as further safety for Josh Allen to throw the ball downfield. This will get groups of their base protection, the place the Payments can win the chess match they play as nicely.
The Ravens have among the best speeding defenses within the NFL, and it’s largely because of the personnel they’ve up entrance. As a substitute of making an attempt to shoot gaps and get penetration, they’ve 340-pound Travis Jones and 345-pound Michael Pierce up entrance to regulate gaps. This permits for second degree movement from Roquan Smith and others on the second degree. When you will get Jones taking part in like this up entrance and Broderick Washington controlling gaps, it permits Roquan Smith to play freely and snuff out this duo run.
Discover the place LB Malik Harrison is. In these heavier packages Harrison is on the sting for the Ravens, the place he has the thickness of a defensive lineman, however could be a protection piece as nicely. I say can, however I’m unsure if the Ravens need him out in cross protection very a lot. Though he’s the off ball LB subsequent to Smith, he’s used rather a lot as an addition on blitzes, maintaining him out of many protection obligations. If the Payments need to assault within the passing sport