The AFC wild-card video games kickoff three in a row on Saturday and Sunday earlier than the NFC joins the celebration on Sunday and Monday.
Each week, we talk about one under-the-radar participant from each workforce who made an enormous distinction within the earlier week in out “Secret Superstars” column. For the postseason, we’re trying forward, not again. Right here we’ll talk about one participant from each workforce within the wild-card spherical who may make all of the distinction within the development to the divisional body.
Listed here are the potential X-Elements for each AFC playoff workforce:
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans
Saturday, January 11, 2025
Los Angeles Chargers: WR Ladd McConkey
McConkey, the second-round rookie from Georgia, isn’t precisely a Secret Famous person, however his impact in Jim Harbaugh’s and Greg Roman’s passing recreation can hardly be overstated for such a younger participant. McConkey has 82 catches on 110 targets this season for 1,149 yards, and 7 touchdowns this season. Concerning this explicit matchup towards the Texans’ protection, he’ll be much more necessary within the methods he’s capable of slice and cube man protection.
As a result of when Houston performs man protection, they’re fairly good at it. They’ve allowed 67 catches on 159 targets in man this season for 1,084 yards, 10 touchdowns, six interceptions, 19 move breakups, and an opponent passer ranking of 70.8 – third-lowest within the NFL.
The place McConkey turns into the X-factor right here is how he’s been capable of cope with man all season. He’s Justin Herbert’s best and constant goal towards man protection, with 29 catches on 40 targets for 400 yards, 239 air yards, 161 yards after the catch, and two touchdowns. McConkey can be the one Chargers receiver with a landing catch towards man protection this season, so one would anticipate Herbert to feed the rookie early and infrequently.
Houston Texans: LG Tytus Howard
C.J. Stroud had among the best rookie seasons we’ve seen from a quarterback lately, so his relative sophomore hunch in 2024 (he plummeted from seventh to thirty fourth in Passing DYAR – yikes) has been stunning. Stroud has a number of the blame there, however there’s additionally the matter of receiver accidents, a passing recreation that hasn’t all the time been schematically wonderful, and a severely leaky offensive line to cope with.
The Texans have been switching the deck chairs on that final explicit Titanic of late, and one transfer that has gone very nicely is the choice previous to Week 15 to maneuver proper deal with Tytus Howard to left guard. The guard positions have been the Texans line’s Achilles’ heel all season lengthy, however in his 4 video games at left guard this season, Howard has allowed one sack, one quarterback hit, and three quarterback pressures. Which makes him appear to be a Corridor of Famer compared with Houston’s different guards.
“Yeah, he’s been capable of do an excellent job in there holding his personal,” Stroud stated of Howard this week. “Undoubtedly simply being only a consolation blanket. I do know he’s going to do his job each time and simply have that inside locked down, or that inside construction, it’s form of like a wall. So, it’s positively useful having him in there. I’m simply joyful that he’s joyful doing it, and I’m happy with him that he’s that sort of man for the workforce – to go in there although his pure place is deal with. However to go in there and have success has been actually superior to look at.”
Maybe essentially the most spectacular instance of Howard’s “consolation blanketing” got here in Week 17 towards the Baltimore Ravens. Stroud received off a 30-yard move to receiver Nico Collins, which might not have been potential with out Howard doing his greatest to select up either side of the stunt by defensive deal with Nnamdi Madubuike, and edge-rusher Odafe Oweh.
Tytus Howard moved from proper deal with to left guard for the @HoustonTexans in Week 15. C.J. Stroud stated this week that the transfer has given him a “consolation blanket.” Which Stroud desperately wants at this level. pic.twitter.com/RJP8c01KkJ
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) January 8, 2025
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Saturday, January 11, 2025
Pittsburgh Steelers: RB Jaylen Warren
We may undergo all types of superior metrics to explain simply how rancid the Steelers’ offense has been during the last month, however we’ll maintain it easy – from Week 15 by means of the top of the common season, Pittsburgh ranked twenty ninth within the NFL in factors per recreation (14.3), and thirty first in yards per play (4.5). That is Not A Good Factor towards a Ravens protection that has seen a large enchancment within the second half of the season; extra on a main purpose for that in a second.
It’s change into fairly clear that the Steelers’ two main weapons within the passing recreation – quarterback Russell Wilson and receiver George Pickens – can’t be counted on to execute regardless of the heck offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is dialing up at any time limit. Which makes it in regards to the run recreation if the Steelers are to look any higher towards the Ravens than they did in a 34-17 Week 16 loss in Baltimore.
If Pittsburgh is to guide with the run, they need to do one thing uncommon – give in to only about each Steelers fan and make Jaylen Warren their lead again as an alternative of Najee Harris. Sure, Harris was the workforce’s first-round decide in 2021, and Warren is a third-year undrafted free agent, however the metrics and the tape level in a single route. Warren has averaged 3.21 yards after contact per carry to Harris’ 2.90. Warren has pressured 31 missed tackles to Harris’ 63… with lower than half the carries (263 to 120). And towards the Ravens in that Week 16 loss, it was Warren who led the way in which as a runner and as a receiver – he had 12 carries for 48 yards, and 5 catches on 5 targets for 44 yards.
The tape tells you that Warren is the extra dynamic and elusive participant, as nicely. Not that the Steelers ought to maintain Harris off the sector solely – he’s not a bust or something – but when they’re to tug off what appears to be like to be a significant upset, it’s time to get the ball within the fingers of the most effective man on the place.
Baltimore Ravens: Security Ar’Darius Washington
Everyone knows that the Baltimore Ravens have loved a outstanding defensive turnaround within the second half of the 2024 season. And we all know that the workforce’s choice to maneuver Kyle Hamilton from all-around defensive again standout to full-time free security was a significant part of the turnaround. That occurred earlier than Week 11, and since then, the Ravens have gone from permitting a Passing EPA per Play of +0.08 (the NFL’s fourth-worst) to -0.25 (by far the NFL’s greatest – the Denver Broncos rank second in that point at -0.08).
Right here’s the factor, although – it wasn’t simply the Hamilton transfer that turned issues round. The Ravens had already shored up their odd deep security group with the insertion of Ar’Darius Washington, and so they actually did that in Week 8. Washington doesn’t look something like a deep security at 5-foot-8 and 177 kilos, however the fourth-year undrafted free agent has been each bit the person when protecting deep, and when coming down in robber protection to idiot opposing quarterbacks.
Add in the truth that Washington and Hamilton are nice at speaking and flipping protection pre- to post-snap, and you start to know why Washington has been so necessary. Washington will even play some field and slot snaps, however ultimately, you actually need him on that wall as a deep defender. If this defensive upswing continues, it might be a main purpose the Ravens nab their third Lombardi Trophy.
Jim Harbaugh spoke on Christmas Day about how @Ravens security Ar’Darius Washington retains making massive performs close to the purpose line. The one which occurred in Week 16 towards the Steelers was the pressured fumble on what would in any other case have been a landing. pic.twitter.com/rJ7vuOxk3A
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) December 30, 2024
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Payments
Sunday, January 12, 2025
Denver Broncos: EDGE Nik Bonitto
This season, the Broncos have blitzed on the NFL’s seventh-highest charge (29.5% of their snaps), however their stress charge of 27.7% is the league’s second-best behind the Dallas Cowboys’ 30.1%. This tells you that Denver’s skill to hassle quarterbacks goes past no matter defensive coordinator Vance Joseph would possibly throw at stated quarterbacks, although Joseph’s enter shouldn’t be diminished. It actually implies that Denver has plenty of hosses of their move rush room. Inside defensive lineman Zach Allen has performed at an All-Professional stage all season, and the second man who ought to obtain extra recognition is Nik Bonitto,
The third-year man from Oklahoma did nearly every thing you may ask of an edge defender, with 15 sacks, 57 complete pressures, 26 stops, and an opponent passer ranking allowed of 25.0, as he gave up three catches on six targets, and returned one other a type of targets for a pick-six towards the Cleveland Browns. Add within the fumble return landing he had towards the Indianapolis Colts, and Bonitto grew to become one in all seven defenders in professional soccer historical past to amass at the least 11.5 sacks and two defensive touchdowns in the identical season.
Sure, Josh Allen is a significant problem for any protection, however Allen will even have his fingers full with a cadre of move rushers who can come at you in all types of the way.
Buffalo Payments: CB Christian Benford
On the opposite aspect of the ball on this recreation, there’s the small matter of Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix changing into one of many NFL’s most frequent and efficient deep passers. The identical Auburn and Oregon prospect many thought had a “weak arm” popping out of faculty has thrown the second-most passes of 20 or extra air yards (73, tied with Josh Allen and behind solely Caleb Williams), finishing 31 of these deep throws for 932 yards, eight touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and a passer ranking of 103.3 – fourth-best within the league amongst quarterbacks taking at the least 20% of their groups’ snaps..
Nix has been much less constant when throwing passes of 10-19 air yards; that’s the place he’s accomplished 30 of 46 passes for 456 yards, seven touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and a passer ranking of 97.7, which ranks twenty first.
So, it will likely be as much as the Payments’ secondary to restrict Nix’s downfield explosiveness, and take advantage of these occasions when the center of the passing chart will get a bit overwhelming. Right here, we’ve got to start with cornerback Christian Benford, the third-year sixth-round select of Villanova who has crammed his resume to change into the workforce’s greatest protection man. This season, Benford has allowed 31 catches on 51 targets for 279 yards, 112 yards after the catch, two touchdowns, two interceptions, seven move breakups, and an opponent passer ranking of 72.3. Furthermore, Benford’s skill to take any sort of receiver intermediate to deep makes him the proper opponent for Nix’s personal talents.