On November 27, merely hours after a ceasefire settlement between Israel and Lebanon got here into impact, a coalition of Syrian opposition factions launched their greatest army operation in years. Led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), they attacked positions of the Syrian regime in Aleppo province, rapidly advancing as their opponents retreated.
Inside days, they managed to realize management of Syria’s second-largest metropolis Aleppo and the whole Idlib governorate, reaching the outskirts of Hama.
This sudden marketing campaign by the Syrian opposition has rekindled a battle that was lengthy thought of “frozen”. It has additionally shattered the notion that Syrian chief Bashar al-Assad has achieved victory and should pave the way in which for renewed peace negotiations.
Why the opposition succeeded
For almost 10 years, a coalition of Russian forces, Hezbollah, and Iran-linked teams have helped al-Assad retain management of most of Syria, aside from the north.
Over the previous two years, this coalition has been degraded as a consequence of a collection of developments, together with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and this yr’s Israeli battle on Lebanon.
In 2023, after the rebel of mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and his subsequent demise, Russia ordered his Wagner Group forces, which had performed a crucial function in floor battles, to depart Syria. This yr, Moscow was pressured to tug a few of its air drive items again from Syria which had lengthy offered much-needed air cowl for the Syrian regime forces. The fleet of Russian plane at the moment stationed on the Hmeimim base in Latakia has dwindled in contrast with its peak energy earlier than the onset of the Ukraine battle.
Hezbollah forces deployed in Syria have additionally declined. The battle with Israel inflicted heavy losses on the group, as a lot of its higher echelons and its chief, Hassan Nasrallah, have been killed. In consequence, the group has needed to withdraw a superb a part of its forces deployed within the Aleppo and Idlib countryside in direction of Lebanon. Iran’s army presence in Syria has additionally been weakened by frequent Israeli assaults.
The Syrian regime forces have additionally been degraded over the previous 14 years of battle. Defection and fight losses have dwindled considerably, whereas the monetary disaster has restricted Damascus’s capacity to pay common wages.
When the opposition launched its assault, it confronted a very worn-out military that had misplaced the desire to struggle. Morale had collapsed, particularly with the absence of allies on the bottom and the Russian Air Power within the sky; they retreated rapidly.
In contrast, the opposition’s efficiency has improved considerably lately, because it has turn out to be higher organised and extra disciplined, particularly HTS. It has additionally been higher geared up on account of native manufacturing, seizing weapons from the regime’s positions and its allies, and acquiring them from exterior events.
There may be now a chance for peace
The Syrian opposition’s advance was shocking to many in all probability as a result of for years, al-Assad has been performing as a victor within the Syrian civil battle. Since his forces regained management over giant elements of the nation in 2018, together with the three de-escalation zones within the south, Damascus countryside and northern Homs, it has refused to make any concessions and even have interaction in any critical negotiations – whether or not by means of the United Nations-sponsored Geneva course of or the Russian-sponsored Astana course of.
Normalisation of relations with Arab nations additionally boosted al-Assad’s self-confidence. Simply final yr, he was invited to attend the Arab Summit in Riyadh which ended 12 years of Arab isolation. All of this had satisfied the regime that it might regain its membership and legitimacy locally of countries and safe financial assist for reconstruction with out having to make any concessions, neither to the Arab nations nor to the Syrian opposition.
As well as, believing that he has the higher hand, al-Assad turned down a number of gives by Turkiye to resolve the Syrian refugee downside and transfer the political course of ahead.
The speedy advance of the opposition has shattered the illusions of victory that the regime and its allies have cradled. The opposition now controls most of northern Syria, together with Aleppo, dwelling to about one-fifth of the Syrian inhabitants. With its financial, industrial, human and political weight, Aleppo might turn out to be a pivotal level for the Syrian opposition and a significant asset in any potential negotiations.
The state of affairs on the battleground additionally displays new geopolitical realities. Al-Assad’s principal allies, Iran and Russia, have been shedding affect as a consequence of regional and worldwide circumstances, whereas Turkiye, the principle regional ally of the opposition, is on the rise.
In consequence, there may be now a window of alternative to launch a real political course of that would finish the 14-year-old battle, which has left lots of of hundreds of Syrians lifeless, hundreds of thousands displaced and the nation in tatters.
As issues stand now, Russia and Iran lack the troops and firepower to reverse the tide. To save lots of al-Assad this time round, they haven’t any different however to commit themselves to a political course of.
The incoming US administration may encourage this. Though beforehand, US President Donald Trump turned away from Syria, describing it as a land of “sand and demise” and ordering the withdrawal of US troops within the Kurdish-held northeast, this time round, the Syrian battle could current him with a chance for a fast overseas coverage success and making good on his promise to “finish wars”.
Syria is low-hanging fruit, and Iran and Russia could also be desperate to strike a cope with Trump. Succeeding the place his Democratic predecessors failed could also be a ok incentive for the brand new US president to place his weight behind the negotiation of a peace settlement.
The views expressed on this article are the creator’s personal and don’t essentially mirror Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.