Key factors:
A new research analyzing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the predictive validity of highschool grade level common (HSGPA) and ACT Composite scores has uncovered vital modifications in how these metrics forecast first-year faculty efficiency.
The analysis, performed by ACT, reveals that whereas the predictive energy of highschool GPA has notably decreased since 2020, ACT Composite scores have remained a dependable indicator of scholars’ early faculty success.
Early success in faculty has been proven to be an indicator of profitable and well timed diploma completion. HSGPA and standardized check scores reminiscent of these from the ACT have been used to foretell a scholar’s first-year faculty GPA (FYGPA), which affords insights for college students to higher put together for increased schooling and for schools to establish college students who might have further assist.
ACT researchers reviewed and analyzed college students’ ACT Composite scores, self-reported HSGPAs, and official FYGPAs. The researchers used HSGPA and ACT Composite rating to foretell a scholar’s FYGPA, after which analyzed how these predictions differed from the scholar’s precise FYGPA.
The analysis discovered an increase within the imply HSGPA from 3.44 in 2017 to three.59 in 2021. On the similar time, ACT Composite scores decreased from 22.51 in 2018 to 21.90 in 2021.
“If you study how these traits correspond with first-year faculty GPA, our analysis demonstrates that after the onset of the pandemic, highschool GPA has develop into a much less constant predictor whereas ACT Composite scores have proven relative stability in predicting first-year GPA,” mentioned Dr. Edgar I. Sanchez, a lead analysis scientist at ACT and creator of the report. “In mild of those findings, we should reevaluate the predictive energy of highschool grades and use a extra holistic method for predicting scholar success, so college students have an correct evaluation of how they’re more likely to carry out of their first yr of school.”
As schools work to make sure they’re precisely evaluating college students as a part of the admission course of, and schooling grapples with the continuing results of the COVID-19 pandemic, the research’s findings present necessary concerns for a way schools can finest consider scholar efficiency.
“As many schools more and more depend on highschool GPA for admission, course placement, and scholarship selections–significantly with standardized check scores turning into non-compulsory–understanding and addressing the impact of grade inflation is extra essential than ever,” ACT CEO Janet Godwin mentioned. “Correct evaluation of educational readiness is important for supporting college students successfully and guaranteeing they’re ready for the challenges of upper schooling.”
The research relies on an analytical pattern of 40,194 college students throughout 10 postsecondary establishments. Based mostly on these findings, schools and different determination makers ought to take into account a extra holistic method, wherein HSGPA and ACT Composite rating mixed present a novel worth and nuanced prediction of scholar FYGPA. Utilizing each HSGPA and ACT Composite rating collectively improved predictions of FYGPA extra successfully than utilizing both measure alone, based on the research.
Key findings:
- The onset of the pandemic noticed vital grade inflation in excessive colleges. This research demonstrates that after the onset of the pandemic, HSGPA has develop into a much less constant predictor of FYGPA.
- The connection between ACT Composite rating and predicted FYGPA has remained secure throughout all cohorts indicating that the ACT Composite rating was and stays a constant predictor of FYGPA regardless of the pandemic.
- Utilizing each HSGPA and ACT Composite rating collectively improved predictions of FYGPA extra successfully than utilizing both measure alone.
- The imply ACT Composite rating barely decreased from 22.34 (2017) to 21.90 (2021).
- The imply HSGPA elevated from 3.44 (2017) to three.59 (2021).
- The imply FYGPA confirmed a gradual improve from 2.81 (2017) to 2.92 (2019), dropped to 2.78 (2020), after which rebounded to 2.84 (2021).
This press launch initially appeared on-line.
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